ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.5.2 GAS FOR POWER GENERATION

The following figures show the evolution of the gas demand for power generation in the TYNDP assessment years for all scenarios. This covers information regarding yearly average volume, as well as the high demand cases of the Peak day and the 2-week high demand case average daily demand.

2.5.2.1 Volume

Gas demand for power generation shows a significant divergence between all sce- narios, but unlike final demand there are increases and variable paths of evolution. The effect of these variations on the CO ² emissions for the entire power sector can be found in section 2.6.2 of this Demand Chapter. Slow Progression is the only scenario that has less demand for power in 2035 than 2017 (-4%), despite the fact that there would be less renewable installed capacity in this scenario, which is because coal is expected to be the favoured fossil fuel for power generation. Blue Transition displays a continually increasing trend across the time period, reach- ing a 49% increase by 2035. This is due to the closure of coal plants and merit order switch to gas following regulation designed to reduce CO ² emissions from the power sector, combined with increased economic output but the development of RES lower than levels seen in the Green scenarios. Gas demand for power generation in the Green Evolution scenario also increases due to the same switch from coal to gas in the merit order, but peaks in 2030 before reducing in 2035 as more RES capacity comes online mitigating base load genera- tion. EU Green Revolution sees accelerated progress of RES power generation develop- ments, leading to a plateau of gas demand for power between 2025 and 2030 before decreasing in 2035 although it remains 9% above levels seen in 2017.

TWh

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

Green Evolution

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

EU Green Revolution

Figure 2.30: Gas demand for power generation

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report