ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.5.3 TOTAL DEMAND

The following figures show the evolution of the total gas demand in the TYNDP assessment years for all scenarios. This covers information regarding yearly average volume, as well as the high demand cases of peak day and 2–week high demand case average daily demand.

2.5.3.1 Volume

When combining the final gas demand and gas demand for power generation, the varying trends driven by the scenario parameters produces some interesting results. Slow Progression, as expected, has a relatively stable gas demand across the assessment period. However, Green Evolution shows a similar profile as the reductions seen in the final demand sector are balanced by the increase in gas demand for power as coal is phased out and back up for RES generation is required. Both scenarios decrease by just over 3% in 2035 when compared to 2017. Blue Transition produces an upward trend across the period reaching a 10% increase by 2035, whereas by the same point the EU Green Revolution decreases by 12.5%, offering the extremes of the demand envelope for TYNDP 2017.

5,500 TWh/y

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

Green Evolution

Slow Progression

EU Green Revolution

Blue Transition

Figure 2.34: Total gas demand

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report