ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.6.2 GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS

The climate targets apply to overall GHG emissions, including the emissions associated with all energy consumption, including households, industry and transportation. The estimation of CO ² emissions in TYNDP 2017 only relate to the gas final demand and the power generation sector relating to gas, coal, oil and other non-RES. For the power generation sector, the demand scenarios use the thermal gap methodology (see Annex C4), where gas and coal are in competition and as such ENTSOG analyses the impact this competition has on emissions depending which fuel is in favour. Demand for oil in power generation has been considered as constant according to the methodology. Further details of what constitutes Other Non-RES are not available so ENTSOG is considering an average emission factor based on the other fossil fuels. To calculate the emissions in ENTSOG demand scenarios, the following emission factors and efficiencies have been used:

CONSIDERED EMISSION AND EFFICIENCY FACTORS FOR THE DIFFERENT FUELS FOR POWER GENERATION

FUEL

CO ²

Output

EFFICIENCY

GAS

kg/MWh

50%

200

COAL

kg/MWh

35%

350

OIL

kg/MWh

35%

280

OTHER NON-RES

kg/MWh

37%

277

Table 2.6: Considered emission and efficiency factors for the different fuels for power generation (Source: Based on data from IPCC and IEA)

Annual emissions have also been calculated for the final energy consumption from gas and fossil fuel power generation data in the report “EC EU Reference Scenario 2016 – Energy, transport and GHG emissions – Trends to 2050” published by DGENERGY released in July 2016, using the same factors to offer a comparison.

Power Generation

In the power generation sector, all demand scenarios are showing significant reduc- tions in yearly CO ² emissions except in the Slow Progression, as shown in figure 2.42. Apart from the initial few years of the time period, Blue Transition shows the least emissions from fossil fuel generation, as the highest gas demand for power genera- tion forces out coal and also impacts generation requirements from other non-RES sources. However, it should be noted that in Green Evolution and EU Green Revolu- tion, the storylines include some Carbon Capture Storage or Utilisation, which are expected to reduce the amount of CO ² released to the atmosphere and explain the marginally higher coal usage in the power sector. Emissions plateau after 2030 is largely due to the extrapolation of ENTSO-E Vision data.

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report