ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report
Total Gas Demand and Power Generation
When combining the sectors of power generation and gas final demand, the reduced volumes required for final demand in the Green scenarios means that both overtake Blue Transition in decarbonisation terms. The EU Reference Scenario is showing less gas demand in the sectors making up final demand than all of the ENTSOG scenarios and as a result now shows a significant move towards the Blue and Green scenarios, away from Slow Progression. When considering the total demand, the data collected from TSO regarding the development of biomethane as a green gas supply can be applied; this makes minimal change regarding Slow Progression but reduces emissions more signifi- cantly in the other scenarios as shown in figure 2.44. For further information concerning the production of biomethane, please refer to the Supply Chapter. Again it is worth noting that in the Green scenarios CCS or CCU would have the potential to reduce emissions further in these scenarios if applied in the power and industrial sectors.
mt per year
CO
2
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
EU Ref 2016
Green Evolution
Slow Progression
Blue Transition
EU Green Revolution
Green Evo-BM
Blue Tran-BM
EU Green Rev-BM
Slow Prog-BM
Figure 2.44: Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation sector and gas final demand
Looking at 2030, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution offer reductions in CO ² emissions of 41%, 42% and 46% respectively. When comparing to the EU target of a 40% reduction compared to 1990 levels, all scenarios apart from Slow Progression go beyond this level.
mt/y
2,500
2,000
21%
41%
42%
46%
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
Slow Progression
Blue Transition
Green Evolution
EU Green Revolution
CO
2 Emission (mt/y)
Figure 2.45: Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation and gas final demand sectors
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report | 93
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