ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.7 Comparison with other demand scenarios

ENTSOG has compared the demand scenarios for TYNDP 2017 with those produced by other organisations as a benchmarking exercise. Assumptions underlying these scenarios are given below:

IEA World Energy Outlook 2015: New Policies, Current Policies and 450 Scenario (IEA, 2015) \\ Current policies (CPS): This scenario only considers policies which implement- ing measures had been formally adopted (as of mid-2015) along with the assumption that these will remain unchanged. \\ New policies (NPS): This scenario, in addition to the considerations for the cur- rent policies, adds relevant policy intentions that have been announced even if they have not yet been fully defined. For example this includes the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted in October 2015 by governments in the lead up to COP21. Policies are introduced in a cautious manner relating to renewable energy, energy efficiency, alternative fuels in transport, carbon pricing, energy subsidies and the future of nuclear power. \\ 450 Scenario (450 S): This scenario takes the goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius by assuming a range of policies that reduce GHG emissions to a stable concentration of 450 parts per million by 2100. The EU Reference Scenario is a projection of where the current set of policies coupled with market trends are likely to lead. The EU has set ambitious objectives for 2020, 2030 and 2050 on climate and energy, so the Reference Scenario allows policy makers to analyse the long-term economic, energy, climate and transport outlook based on the current policy framework. \\ Despite a projected decrease in EU fossil fuel production, net fuel imports will decrease and the EU’s import dependency will only slowly increase over the projected period. That is mainly due to the higher share of renewable energy sources (RES) and significant energy efficiency improvements, while nuclear production remains stable. \\ The EU power generation mix will change considerably in favour of renewables. Gas maintains its role in the power generation mix in 2030, at slightly higher levels compared to 2015, but other fossil fuels will see their share decrease. \\ There will be significant energy efficiency improvements, driven mainly by policy up to 2020 and then by market/technology trends post-2020. Primary energy demand and GDP will continue to decouple. European Commission – EU Reference Scenario 2016 – Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions – Trends to 2050  1)

 1) The “EU Reference Scenario 2016 – Energy, transport and GHG emissions - Trends to 2050” publication report describes in detail the analytical approach followed, the assumptions taken and the detailed results.

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