INNOVATION January-February 2012

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Keeping in mind the cloud of global uncertainty that could rain on forecasts, the outlook is getting brighter. The provincial goverment’s British Columbia Labour Market Outlook: 2010–2020 (prepared in Spring 2011) notes that three occupational groups are expected to add jobs at a faster pace than the provincial average over the projection period. One of those groups is natural and applied sciences, which comprises engineers and geoscientists, among others. Number-crunchers in the BC Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Innovation took the big picture and broke it down into regional snapshots for a new online tool, the Job Trend Tracker (www. bcjobtrendtracker.ca). In it, civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers are cited as a “hot” group. For instance, 85 positions are expected to open for civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers in 2012 on Vancouver Island and the Coast region. The bulk of these kinds of engineering jobs—estimated at 546—will be in the Lower Mainland-Southwest region. These numbers include both new jobs and openings to replace retiring workers. The ministry’s Director of Labour Market Forecasting and Analysis is confident in the numbers produced by her group’s • Employment growth for professional occupations in natural and applied science is forecast to outpace total job growth in the province. This occupational group is expected to see a 25% increase in employment, ahead of the 19% predicted for all occupations between 2009 and 2019. • According to the BC Economic Forecast Council, BC’s GDP is expected to grow 2.2% in 2012 and average 2.7% over 2013-2016. BC is predicted to outperform the Canadian average in 2012. • Currently, unemployment rates in science-related occupations remain lower than the provincial average. This is expected to continue through to 2019. BC’s Economic Outlook for Engineering and Geoscience in 2012

Suzanne Morphet

U ncertain. If there’s a single word that describes the year ahead, that’s the one. With Europe in recession and Asia facing the possibility of an economic slowdown, Canada’s and BC’s fortunes are hard to predict. For good or for bad, we’re tied into the global economy through trade and equity markets. Even consumer confidence at home mirrors events abroad. “This is one year where the range of uncertainty is very high, more so than last year, this is probably the most uncertain time since the financial crisis of 2008,” says Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, the central financial facility and trade association for the BC and Ontario credit union systems. Pastrick also sits on the BC Economic Forecast Council, which provides economic advice to the province’s finance minister. When Council members met in November they reduced their estimate of how much BC’s economy would grow this year, lowering it from the 2.7% they forecast in January 2011 to 2.2%. Still, it is growth. And the 14-member group—some of BC’s most respected independent economic forecasters—also predicted BC would outperform the Canadian average. So what does it all mean for engineers and geoscientists in BC who work in a variety of fields?

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