INNOVATION January-February 2012

“Three occupational groups are expected to add jobs at a faster pace than the provincial average…one of those groups is Natural and Applied Sciences, which comprises engineers and geoscientists, among others.”

economic model, given the early results of their forecasts in 2010 for the years 2009-2019. “I was surprised how well we did,” says Kerry Young. “At the overall provincial level and regional level in terms of the employment numbers we were really close.” In 2012, Young sees demand for engineers and physical science professionals on an upward trend. “Over 1,000 job openings are expected for civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers and other engineers combined,” she says, adding that approximately 200 job openings are expected for physical science professionals in 2012. (Geoscientists are not analyzed separately.) Let’s look at some of the sectors that are most promising for engineers and geoscientists in 2012. Forestry and Wood Manufacturing Pastrick believes forestry and wood products manufacturing have the highest growth potential of any industry in BC between 2012 and 2015 thanks largely to an expected rebound in the US economy. That could be tempered by what happens in Europe, but Alex Carrick, chief economist with Reed Construction Data agrees that BC’s forestry industry depends heavily on the US and things there are improving. “The US economy is increasingly turning positive and faster than a lot of people were expecting,” says Carrick. Pastrick notes that lumber exports to China in 2011 were expected to exceed $1 billion, up more than 50% from 2010, while exports of pulp and paper products to China were on track to overtake those to the US for the first time. For 2012, Pastrick warns that BC’s exports will be impacted by the slowing European economy. “To the extent that Europe slows, US exports will also be affected, as well as China and other emerging markets and therefore our exports into the US and China will also be indirectly affected.” However, Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index Report (December 21, 2011) says China plans to build 10 million social housing units this year and predicts its economy will rebound by spring, bolstering global growth and commodity prices.

Mining and Metals Manufacturing “The mining industry is definitely on an upswing,” says Zoe Younger, vice-president of corporate affairs for the Mining Association of British Columbia. Case in point: construction on the new Bonanza Ledge gold mine, just outside of Wells, has approval to begin this year. Mining has always been an important sector for engineers and geoscientists, but Younger says since her association adopted a goal of moving towards sustainable mining, there’s even more opportunity. “Our industry is hungry for ways to be better and smarter.” BC’s Premier also has her eye on mining. As part of her government’s BC Jobs Plan, Christy Clark set a goal for eight new mines to open and another nine to expand by 2015. Pastrick thinks it’s possible. “By 2015 I think they have a reasonable shot at it, but if the global economy turns even weaker, if there’s an outright recession—not just in Europe but in the US and elsewhere—that’s going to hit commodity prices, push them lower and some of those projects may be delayed as a result.” Construction and Infrastructure The construction industry is highly cyclical, sometimes swinging sharply from one year to the next. In his Economic Analysis of British Columbia (September 2011) Pastrick noted that construction contracted by 6.8% in 2009 only to rebound by 11.3% in 2010. Pastrick estimates gross domestic product from BC’s construction industry to grow by 4.6 % this year, more than twice the growth of the GDP as a whole. In terms of dollar value, Alex Carrick of Reed Construction Data says the industry will grow from about $37 billion in 2011 to $39.4 billion in 2012. That includes residential, non-residential and infrastructure construction. Residential construction won’t be what it was, but Carrick says it’s making a comeback. “It has returned to some degree, particularly the high-rise section in Vancouver, it’s doing pretty good.” Carrick attributes this demand to societal changes, “empty nesters like to be downtown.” Another factor is money

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