CEE REPORT FLIPPING PAGES.pdf

Brown&Co Research CEE Land Market Brief 2014 Brown & Co Res arch Central & Eastern European Land Market Brief 2014

Adam Oliver a.oliver@brown-co.pl

INTRODUCTION 2014 Wheat Price Movements - The Effects Northern hemisphere wheat exporters (USA, Europe, CIS) have seen an increase in production of around 10% on their 3 year average production in 2014. Stocks to use ratios for both wheat and coarse grains are anticipated to build for the second consecutive year and could reach 20% for coarse grains and 26% for wheat – the highest level seen over the last 10 years. At the farm gate level however, this year has been at least as much about the quality of wheat produced as the increase in supply and subsequent decrease in global prices; EU wheat production has been almost back at 2008 levels and yet a signi%cantly greater proportion of the crop was feed quality adding an additional marketing challenge in an already di$cult market. The general market view is that production is up, but at the expense of quality. France for example normally produces c. 20mt of Grade 1 wheat and c. 5mt of Grade 3; this year Grade 1 was estimated at 7.5mt whilst Grade 3 was estimated at 17mt. Following the second consecutive \HDU RI JOREDO JUDLQ VXUSOXV PDQ\ RI Brown&Co clients across the CEE region have suffered a 20-25% reduction inwheat prices in comparison to 2013. This article aims to review some of WKH JOREDO IDFWRUV DW SOD\ H[DPLQH WKH impact at the farmgate level andwhat WKLVPD\PHDQ ORRNLQJ IRUZDUG

Price ranges (in conjunctionwith RYHUDOO PDUNHW YRODWLOLW\ KDYH DV D result varied 10-25%subject to VSHFLÀF SURWHLQ OHYHOV²FRPSDUHG WRPRUH OLNH LQ UHFHQW \HDUV This has once again underlined the marketing challenge to producers ZKRVH DELOLW\ WRPDQDJH SULFH ULVN IUHTXHQWO\ VWDQGV RXW DV WKH VLQJOH biggest factor in setting apart the top 5%performing business’ compared to the average.

CEE Land Market Brief 2014 03