TPT January 2014

Global Marketplace

Mr Jolly observed that “no one is predicting a near-term economic breakout” – and the survey of purchasing managers revealed that growth appeared to be slowing slightly in Germany and registering only a negligible expansion in France. But, he wrote, the other 15 members of the euro currency area “reported modest growth of activity for the third month running, representing the first period of growth for these countries since early 2011.” › Ben May, an economist with Capital Economics in London, told the Times that, in spite of the small monthly decline in the Markit Economics index from September’s level, it was still far higher in October than in January. He noted also that manufacturing in Europe actually improved, in contrast to a slightly weaker showing in the services sector. “On past form, the index is now consistent with quarterly growth in eurozone GDP of about 0.2 per cent,” for an annualised rate of about 0.8 per cent, Mr May wrote. While that is weaker than the second-quarter expansion of about 1.1 per cent annualised, it is, he pointed out, “positive nonetheless.”

Chris Williamson, chief economist for Markit Economics, was summarising the results of a closely watched corporate survey released by the London-based international data and analysis firm on 24 October. While the growth trend is a modest one, it strongly suggests that the economy of Europe, where 330 million citizens of the European Union use the euro, has entered a period of steady growth. The composite purchasing managers’ index compiled by Markit Economics came in at 51.5 in October, above the 50.0 mark that signals expansion. While that is a slight deceleration from September’s 52.2 showing, it was the fourth consecutive month in positive territory. Writing from Paris, David Jolly of the New York Times said that the report was the latest to reinforce the message that “after lurching from the Lehman Brothers crisis five years ago to its own sovereign debt problems,” Europe appears to be getting quit of its problems. The eurozone officially exited recession in the second quarter, with a small upturn. On the same day that the Markit Economics report was published, the Spanish government said that Spain had pulled out of a two-year recession, with a modest third-quarter expansion. While joblessness in Spain remains at depression levels, and that of the overall euro zone is elevated at 12 per cent, both appear to have reached a plateau.

Dorothy Fabian, Features Editor (USA)

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