Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

External Sector Developments Provisional data indicated an improvement in the merchandise trade balance. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 4.5 per cent to $3,635.6m, primarily based on a reduction in import payments, supported by growth in export receipts. Import payments fell by 3.7 per cent ($153.9m) to $3,975.6m, in contrast to growth of 15.8 per cent ($564.3m) recorded in the comparable period of last year. The largest declines in import payments were noted for mineral fuels and related materials ($149.3m), miscellaneous manufactured articles and beverages ($34.0m) and tobacco ($11.5m). On a country level, the value of imports fell in four of the eight territories (Anguilla, Saint Christopher (St Kitts) and Nevis, Saint Lucia and St Vincent and the Grenadines) ranging from 17.5 per cent ($157.0m) in Saint Lucia to 4.5 per cent ($20.6m) in Saint Christopher (St Kitts) and Nevis. By contrast, import payments grew in the remaining four countries, driven largely by growth of 10.0 per cent ($38.2m) in The Commonwealth of Dominica and 3.7 per cent ($32.5m) in Antigua and Barbuda.

exports. Re-exports grew by 21.9 per cent to $117.5m, while domestic exports declined by 1.5 per cent to $222.5m. When disaggregated by country, export earnings expanded in six member territories, namely Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat and Saint Christopher (St. Kitts) and Nevis. Earnings from exports contracted in Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Total banana export revenue declined by 28.7 per cent, the consequence of 32.7 per cent fall in production.

Montserrat Visible Trade

-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 EC$M

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2

Total Imports

Total Exports

Trade Balance

Gross travel receipts rose by 15.1 per cent to $3,630.9m, consistent with growth in total visitor arrivals. The external transactions of commercial banks resulted in a net outflow of $924.1m in short-term capital compared with a net outflow of $751.0m during the corresponding period of

Export receipts increased by 5.5 per cent ($17.7m) to $340.0m, driven by growth in re-exports, despite a decline in domestic

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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank