Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review THE COMMONWEALTH OF DOMINICA

sector, replanting following hurricane Maria is expected to continue yielding an increase in agricultural output. Similarly, activity in the tourism industry is also likely to improve in the latter half of the year, supported by the hosting of the World Creole Music Festival in October. Growth in the construction sector is expected to continue, supported by ongoing reconstruction and rehabilitation activities in the public sector. Private sector projects such as the continuation of the construction of the Tranquillity Bay Beach Hotel and Jungle Bay Villas, in addition to the ongoing repair and reconstruction of residential homes, is likely to contribute to the acceleration in construction activity. Manufacturing output is projected to also expand as the productive capacity of facilities in the sector has improved considerably following the hurricane. The overall fiscal balance is anticipated to worsen, mainly because of continued expenditure on the recovery and reconstruction effort. This outturn is likely to be compounded if the decline in inflows from the Citizenship by Investment Programme observed in the first half of the year continues throughout the remainder of 2019. However, tax revenue is expected to

Dominica Visible Trade

300.0 EC$M

200.0

100.0

0.0

-100.0

-200.0

-300.0

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2

Total Imports

Total Exports

Trade Balance

Gross travel receipts are estimated to have increased by 96.2 per cent to $103.3m, consistent with the notable rise in visitor arrivals. Commercial banks’ transactions resulted in a net inflow of $78.9m in short term capital, compared with one of $47.2m in the first six months of 2018. In the public sector, external loan disbursements to the central government totalled $12.8m compared with $9.6m in the corresponding period of the previous year. On the other hand, external principal repayments amounted to $27.8m, up from $25.4m at the end of June 2018. These transactions led to a net outflow of $15.0m compared with one of $15.8m in the first two quarters of 2018. Outlook The The Commonwealth of Dominican economy is expected to continue to grow for the remainder of 2019. In the agricultural

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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank