Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review MONTSERRAT

As these sectors expand, they are likely to have positive spill over effects on the performance of auxiliary sectors such as transport, storage and communications and real estate, renting and business. Improvements in the central government's fiscal balances in 2019 will depend on the timely disbursement of grant aid and a likely turn-around in revenue collection. Budgetary aid from the United Kingdom usually finances close to 70.0 per cent of expenditure, therefore uncertainties regarding Brexit may impede the efficiency of grant inflows and overall economic activity. On the other hand, if global developments are as favourable as anticipated, grant inflows may increase. For Montserrat, air access remains a challenge. Resolving this issue is critical for effective implementation of its population expansion policy and improving the doing business environment. Other significant risks to the growth prospects include ongoing geopolitical tensions, the perennial threat of volcanic eruptions and adverse weather, particularly associated with an active 2019 hurricane season.

contribute on aggregate approximately one third of overall economic output in Montserrat, is estimated to have grown in the review period, evidenced in part by higher public sector remuneration. Wages and salaries paid to public officers by the central government increased by 5.0 per cent in the first half of 2019, following growth of 3.7 per cent in the comparable six months of the previous year. Value added in the tourism industry is estimated to have risen in the first six months of 2019, as indicated by an increase in the total number of visitors. Total arrivals grew by 9.1 per cent to 12,078, reflecting growth in all visitor categories, except yacht arrivals. The number of cruise ship passengers rose by 25.8 per cent to 3,445, in contrast to a decline of 40.6 per cent in the corresponding half of 2018. The improvement in the cruise ship category was partly associated with an increase of 9.1 per cent in the number of cruise ship calls to the Emerald Isle, when compared with the first six months of the previous year. The number of stay-over visitors increased by 4.2 per cent to 6,140, compared with growth of 7.2 per cent in the comparable period of 2018. The outturn for stay-over arrivals mainly reflected strong

Real Sector Developments Activity in public administration, defence and compulsory social security, which

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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank