Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review MONTSERRAT

primarily on grant financing from the UK Government and so plans for major projects may be hampered by the indecision of the UK Parliament regarding Brexit. Additionally, any depreciation of the Sterling has the potential to adversely impact anticipated budgetary support. An uptick in construction activity is expected, a continuation from the first half of the year. In the public sector, infrastructural development and maintenance works on roads and bridges will persist throughout the year, supported by a school project and activities related to the implementation of phase one of the Little Bay Development. In addition, tourism related projects geared towards further development of Montserrat’s unique tourism product will complement the ongoing construction activities. Activity is the hotels and restaurants sector is projected to remain on its current positive trajectory, largely due to expected improvements in the cruise segment. The thrust of tourism officials is to enhance access and be more aggressive in their marketing strategy. Meanwhile, policies to encourage cruise ships to dock on the island remain a priority. Improvements in the

Gross receipts from travel are estimated to have increased by 4.3 per cent to $17.4m, reflective of growth in the number of stay- over visitors. Transactions of commercial banks resulted in a net outflow of $7.4m in short-term capital during the first half of 2019, compared with an outflow of $6.9m recorded during the corresponding period of 2018.

Montserrat Visible Trade

-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 EC$M

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2

Total Exports

Total Imports

Trade Balance

Outlook Although risks to the forecasts have been tilted to the downside, the economy of Montserrat is projected to expand in the second half of 2019, as the performance of key economic sectors is expected to pick up. The positive outturn in the first six months augurs well for the overall outturn for the year. It is anticipated that the drawdown of budgetary aid in the latter half of the year will help spur economic activity. However, Montserrat, an overseas territory, depends

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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank