2017 Spencer Comprehensive Land Use Plan

Spencer, Iowa  2017  Comprehensive Plan

The 2000 Census indicates 2.4 percent of the city’s residents were members of a minority race or combinations of races other than white. By 2010, this figure had changed to reflect 4.0 percent of the city’s residents are classified as a race or combinations of races other than white. In 2010, 96 percent of Spencer residents identified themselves as belonging to the White race. Those identifying themselves as Hispanic or Latino of any race in 2010 accounted for 390 residents or 3.5 percent of Spencer’s population. These race and ethnicity statistics are significant when determining the services that need to be provided to all residents of the community. As minority and ethnic segments of the population continue to grow, the city’s policies and goals with respect to provision of community services, housing and land use considerations may need to be evaluated and adjusted. FUTURE POPULATION PROJECTIONS Accurate estimates of population for a city are key factors in determining future need for services, housing, and infrastructure. Analysis of population projections can provide insight into the type and quantity of future development needed and allows local officials to establish land use policies to guide development. There are multiple sources that provide population and demographic projections. Unfortunately, nearly all these sources only provide projections at the state, county or metropolitan level. No known sources generate population projections for small cities (cities not classified as a metropolitan statistical area or a population under 50,000). For purposes of identifying future population projections for Spencer the data presented by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. will be used. Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. is an independent corporation located in Washington D.C. specializing in long term county economic and demographic populations. Woods & Poole maintains a database for every county in the United States containing projections through the year 2050 for more than 500 variables. Using Woods & Poole data is perceived to be more accurate than other sources or methods of calculating population projections. Whereas other projection models, such as the cohort-survival method is based on the natural change, including births and deaths of a given population, the Woods & Poole data accounts for in-migration and out-migration in addition to other economic factors. Since projections are limited to the county level, the projected population for Spencer will be extrapolated from Clay County data.

Table 3 - Projected Population for Spencer, 2020-2050

% of Total County Population

Spencer Projected Population (Exponential)

Spencer Projected Population (Linear)

Clay County Population

% of Total County Population

Year

1970

18,475

55.6%

10,278

55.6%

10,278

1980

19,562

59.9%

11,726

59.9%

11,726

1990

17,654

62.7%

11,066

62.7%

11,066

2000

17,360

65.1%

11,317

65.1%

11,317

2010

16,626 16,495 16,600

67.6% 67.9% 70.4%

11,233 11,206 11,680

67.6% 67.9% 67.9%

11,233 11,206 11,271

2014 est.

2020

2030

16,711

72.8%

12,169

67.9%

11,347

2040

16,559

75.3%

12,466

67.9%

11,244

2050

16,154 10,969 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 and 2014 Census estimates *2020-2050 are projections by Woods & Poole, Inc. 2015 Reprinted with permission from “2015 State Profile: Iowa”, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., Washington, D.C. 77.7% 12,558 67.9%

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NW Iowa Planning & Development