2017 Spencer Comprehensive Land Use Plan

Spencer, Iowa  2017  Comprehensive Plan

that, in recent years and over the past decade, new housing subdivisions have been developed in Spencer. Much of the construction has included developments in the southern part of Spencer; and towards the west side of Spencer near Deerfield Park. The following table provides an estimate of the number of housing units the city will need over the next 35 years. The information makes a number of assumptions. One of these assumptions is that population projections are accurate to begin with. Another assumption is the average household size or persons per household will not change in the future. This is not likely since the average household size has been decreasing over the years. If the household size continues to decrease, this means a greater population will be supported by fewer housing units. If the household size continues to decrease in the future, the projected housing need should be reevaluated using the most current data. Another assumption being that the average number of demolished houses stays consistent with the previous ten years of averaging 8 houses per year. Lastly, these projections do not account for sociological considerations such as the impact that major employment expansions or closings may have.

Table 5 - Projected Housing Units Needed In 2020, 2030 And 2040

Projected Housing Need

2020

2030

2040

2050

Projected Population

11,680

12,168

12,466

12,558

Projected Household Size (based on 2010 pph)

2.19 pph

2.19 pph

2.19 pph

2.19 pph

Projected housing units needed for population

5,333

5,556

5,692

5,734

Maintain a 5% vacancy rate

5,600

5,834

5,977

6,021

Average demolition/removal of 8 houses per year

40

120

200

280

Total housing units needed

5,640

5,954

6,177

6,301

Current housing units in 2010

5,431

5,431

5,431

5,431

+209

+523

+746

+870

Additional increase in housing needed

41.8 units/year

34.9 units/year

29.8 units/year

24.9 units/year

According to the table, the City of Spencer shows a need for an increase in the number of new housing units through 2050. As previously mentioned, these projections are based on many considerations about population, household size, and new or demolished housing units over the next thirty years. The housing need shows a projected need of 25 to 42 new housing units per year over the next thirty- five years. Although this may seem like a sizeable goal to accomplish year after year, it should be noted the building permit data shown later in this chapter indicates a current trend of 10-40 new housing units constructed in Spencer over each of the past 10 years. With recent building permit numbers showing growth trends for new housing starts, this makes the projected housing need a much more attainable objective. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS According to statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau, a combined 44 building permits were issued for the construction of 104 new single family and multiple family dwelling units in Spencer over the past decade. From 2004 through 2014, the total valuation of new dwelling units constructed in Spencer is nearly $13 million. The following statistics are for new construction of residential housing units only and does not include the building permits or valuations for the construction of new commercial or industrial and agricultural related buildings and structures.

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NW Iowa Planning & Development