2015 Informs Annual Meeting

MA62

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

MA63 63-Room 112B, CC

3 - The Economic Effects of Interregional Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates in the WECC Francisco Munoz, Assistant Professor, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Diagonal Las Torres 2640, Santiago, Chile, elpanchomunoz@gmail.com, Benjamin Hobbs, Andres Perez, Enzo Sauma In the U.S., individual states enact RPSs for renewable electricity production with little coordination. Using a co-optimization (transmission and generation) planning model, we quantify the long run economic benefits of allowing flexibility in the trading of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) among the U.S. states that belong to the WECC. We find that up to 90% of the economic benefits are captured if approximately 25% of unbundled RECs are allowed to be acquired from out of state. 4 - Reliable Transmission Expansion Planning for Large Renewable Energy Penetration David Pozo, PUC, Ave. Vicuna MAckenna 4860, Santiago, Chile, davidpozocamara@gmail.com, Alexandre Moreira, Alexandre Street, Enzo Sauma We presents a novel approach to jointly address transmission network and renewable capacity expansion planning dealing with renewables variability under multiple n - K security criteria. An adjustable robust optimization approach is presented to circumvent the tractability issues associated with conventional contingency-constrained methods relying on explicitly modeling the whole contingency set and renewables generation scenarios. The adjustable robust model is formulated as a trilevel problem. MA62 62-Room 112A, CC OR Models for Ocean and River Energy Sponsor: ENRE – Environment I – Environment and Sustainability Sponsored Session Chair: Alberto Lamadrid, Assistant Professor, Lehigh University, 27 Memorial Drive, Bethlehem, PA, 18015, United States of America, ajlamadrid@lehigh.edu Co-Chair: Larry Snyder, Associate Professor, Lehigh University, 200 West Packer Ave., Mohler Lab, Bethlehem, PA, 18015, United States of America, larry.snyder@lehigh.edu 1 - Portfolio Assessment of Run-of-River Hydrokinetic Power Generation Seth Blumsack, Associate Professor, Pennsylvania State University, 153 Hosler Building, University Park, PA, 16802, United States of America, sethb@psu.edu, Mehdi Shahriari, Frank Liu, Ben Hodges Spatially distributed run-of-river hydrokinetic power generation resources are a portfolio of assets whose value varies with prices and output. We quantify the locational contribution of hydrokinetic generation to the value of a spatial portfolio and derive a variance decomposition indicating how variance in portfolio value depends on variance in output, prices and spatial co-fluctuations. Individual sites have nearly uniform value contributions over fast time scales, but not longer time scales. 2 - Towards a Holistic Modeling of River Networks River dynamics are dependent on both terrain and environmental conditions. While AR-based models can be sufficiently accurate for forecasting river dynamics, we show that spatio-temporal variability can only be uncovered through a multi-fractal spectrum formalism. Moreover, a network-based model of cloud movement can estimate precipitation levels, thereby providing a first step towards modeling the complete hydrological cycle and developing control methods for run-of-river power projects. 3 - Hydro-structural Design Optimization for Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines Ashwin Vinod, Graduate Student, Lehigh University, 19 Memorial Drive West, Mechanical Engineering & Mechanics, Bethlehem, PA, 18015, United States of America, asv312@lehigh.edu, Arindam Banerjee An optimization methodology for a fixed pitch horizontal axis hydrokinetic turbine will be presented using a combination of a coupled hydro-structural analysis and genetic algorithm based optimization. Preliminary hydro-structural analysis indicates low hydrodynamic performance and high flap-wise bending stresses developed in turbine blades. A multi-objective optimization methodology is used to design a variable chord, twisted blade turbine which yielded improved hydro-structural performance. Radu Marculescu, Professor Of Electrical And Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Dept. of ECE, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States of America, radum@cmu.edu, Diana Marculescu, Paul Bogdan

Daniel H. Wagner Prize Competition I Cluster: Daniel H. Wagner Prize Competition Invited Session Chair: Allen Butler, President & CEO, Daniel H. Wagner Associates, Inc. 2 Eaton Street, Hampton, VA 23669, United States of America, Allen.Butler@va.wagner.com 1 - Using Analytics to Enhance Shelf Space Management in a Food Retailer Teresa Bianchi-Aguiar, University of Porto and LTPlabs, INESC TEC & Faculty of Engineering, Portugal, mtbaguiar@fe.up.pt, Elsa Silva, Luis Guimarães, Maria Antónia Carravilla, José F. Oliveira, Jorge Liz, João Gönther Amaral, Sérgio Lapela This talk describes a collaboration with the leading Portuguese food retailer, addressing the allocation of products to shelves. The result is GAP, a DSS that is today used on a daily basis. GAP has a modular structure and systematically applies tailor-made mathematical programming models combined with heuristics. It is able to incorporate different merchandising rules, allowing the company to test several product allocation strategies with a trade-off between customization and optimization. 2 - Strategic Re-design of Urban Mail and Parcel Networks at La Poste Stefan Spinler, Professor, WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar, 56179, Germany, stefan.spinler@whu.edu, Alain Roset, Matthias Winkenbach We devise a decision model that allows La Poste, the French postal operator, to assess the benefits of merging the urban mail and parcel delivery networks which used to be run as separate entities. Based on data from the French city of Nantes, we find that merging the mail and parcel delivery yields cost benefits of around 3\% which prove to be robust under various scenarios tested. These findings corroborated management’s expectation of cost savings and entailed a new organizational structure. Joint Session DAS/HAS: Dependencies in Pharmaceutical Portfolio Management: Challenges and Pragmatic Approaches Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Chris Dalton, Syncopation Software, 6 State Street, Suite 308, Bangor, ME, 04401, United States of America, cdalton@syncopation.com 1 - Assessing Technical Risk Dependencies in Pharmaceutical Drug Development Elayne Ko, Pfizer, 500 Arcola Road, Collegeville, PA, 19426, United States of America, Elayne.Ko@pfizer.com The presentation explores the process and framework of evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects with technical risk dependencies. This occurs when either 1) compounds in the portfolio share the same mechanism of action or 2) a compound is being developed for more than one indication. Assuming probability independence and simply aggregating individual compound evaluations into portfolio view would not adequately reflect the risks of the compounds. 2 - Play the Portfolio Game Chris Dalton, Syncopation Software, 6 State Street, Suite 308, Bangor, ME, 04401, United States of America, cdalton@syncopation.com, Phil Beccue, Elayne Ko This segment will feature an interactive portfolio management exercise designed to foreshadow and highlight the central concepts of the talks that follow. Participants will work in small groups, selecting the best portfolio they can from a pool of risky projects. Uncertainties will be resolved throughout the session, so that a final portfolio value can be calculated. There will be prizes for the winning team. MA64 64-Room 113A, CC

166