2015 Informs Annual Meeting

TB58

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

2 - Demand-side Power Procurement with Renewable Generation and Energy Storage

3 - Economics of High-temperature Reactors for Industrial Cogeneration: A Utility’s Perspective Reinhard Madlener, RMadlener@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de, Jona Hampe This paper studies the economic potential of using HTRs for cogeneration of industrial process heat and electricity. We find that a reference case HTR can deliver cost-competitive process heat (at 200 ∞ C), thus rendering the chemical and pulp & paper industries potential candidates. We use real options analysis to deal with uncertainty and the managerial flexibilities of the project. We also propose a model to calculate the option of switching between two different operation modes. 4 - Selecting the Optimum Nuclear Fuel Cycle Including Quasi-rational Opinions and Public Perception Sama Bilbao Y Leon, Associate Professor, Virginia Commonwealth University, 401 W Main St, Richmond, VA, 23284, United States of America, sbilbao@vcu.edu, John Swanson, Ishoc Salaam, Jonathan Hill Although much work has been done to address the technological challenges associated with the management and ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel, less attention has been given to public perception and acceptance of the selected fuel cycle. This work presents current progress in a decision making model based on Multi-Attribute Utility Theory that contains the fundamental objectives for both technical and non-technical factors. TB59 59-Room 110B, CC Fire Management 2: Landscape & Modeling Sponsor: ENRE – Environment II – Forestry Sponsored Session Chair: Hailey Buckingham, hailey.buckingham@oregonstate.edu 1 - Timber Harvest and Fuel Treatment Decisions with Fire Risk Chris Lauer, cjlauer@gmail.com, Claire Montgomery This paper attempts to determine the optimal timing and location of fuel treatments and timber harvests for a multi-stand landscape, accounting for the spatial interactions that drive the fire behavior. An optimization method known as value iteration is used to solve the dynamic program. Outcomes for multiple land ownership configurations are explored. 2 - Integrating Wildfire Risk and Spread in a Cellular Forest Harvesting Model Marc McDill, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States of America, mmcdill@psu.edu, Susete Marques, José Borges We present a stochastic, cellular multi-objective forest harvest scheduling model incorporating a mechanistic model of fire risk probability based on the state of a cell and the probability of fire in neighboring cells. The model illustrates a potential approach to integrate management activities including fuel treatments and harvesting to address multiple objectives. TB60 60-Room 111A, CC Education II Contributed Session Chair: Omar Ben-ayed, Professor of Management, Qatar University, Al Jameaa Street, P.O. Box 2713, Doha, 2713, Qatar, omar.benayed@qu.edu.qa 1 - Challenges of Imbedding a Built-In OR/MS Paradigm among Engineering Graduates

Soongeol Kwon, Texas A&M University, 3131 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843, United States of America, soongeol@tamu.edu, Natarajan Gautam

We consider operational decisions to satisfy power demand while minimizing purchase cost over time-varying electricity prices. In our scenario, consumers use renewable sources to serve power demand and operate energy storage. We propose a two-stage stochastic optimization problem to control purchase, consumption and operations based on day-ahead and real-time procurement while responding to variability and uncertainty in power demand, renewable sources and electricity prices. 3 - Wind Speed Forecasting for Wind Parks: A Sequential Modeling Approach Vignesh Subramanian, Dept. of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB118, Tampa, FL, United States of America, vigneshs@mail.usf.edu, Tapas K. Das Inherently intermittent nature of wind energy makes it essential to accurately predict wind speed for reliable operation of power systems comprising wind generation. We propose a two-stage model. Stage I uses SVM to classify wind speed into three clusters: zero power, rated power, and continuous power. Stage II employs a Bayesian additive regression kernel (BARK) method to the continuous power cluster to estimate the wind speed. The model is tested on numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. 4 - Capacity Remuneration in the Belgian Electricity Market Anthony Papavasiliou, Université Catholique de Louvain, Voie du Roman Pays 34, Louvain la Neuve, Ou, 1348, Belgium, tpapva@hotmail.com Belgium experienced a serious shortage in capacity recently due to the unplanned outage of nuclear capacity. This has motivated an investigation of Belgian capacity remuneration mechanisms. In this presentation we compare the existing fixed reserve requirements mechanism with the introduction of operating reserve demand curves in reserve auctions. TB58 58-Room 110A, CC Topics in Nuclear Energy Sponsor: ENRE – Energy II – Other (e.g., Policy, Natural Gas, Climate Change) Sponsored Session Chair: Alexandra Newman, Professor, Colorado School of Mines, Mechanical Engineering, Golden, CO, 80401, United States of America, anewman@mines.edu 1 - Optimizing the Placement of Radioactive Isotope Measurement Devices in a Nuclear Fuel Cycle Ben Johnson, PhD Student, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, 80401, United States of America, bebjohns@mymail.mines.edu, Alexandra Newman, Jeffrey King The purpose of nuclear safeguards is to prevent proliferation of radioactive material. Enhancing methods to detect potential proliferation will help reduce the increasing threat of malicious entities successfully obtaining nuclear material. We create a mixed integer program to determine how many, where, and which types of radioactive isotope measurement devices should be used in the nuclear fuel cycle to minimize the weighted sum of Type I and Type II measurement errors. 2 - Modeling Societal Disruption from Nuclear Accidents to Inform Regulatory Decision-making Vicki Bier, Professor, University of Wisconsin - Madison, 1513 University Avenue, 3270A Mechanical Engineering Building, Madison, WI, 53706, United States of America, vicki.bier@wisc.edu, Michael Corradini, Caleb Roh, Shuji Liu, Robert Youngblood Nuclear regulation in the U.S. focuses on preventing radiation-related fatalities. However, recent experience shows that societal disruption from relocation can be considerable, arguably more significant than radiation-induced health effects. We have evaluated the population relocation that could occur after severe reactor accidents as a proxy for societal disruption, and argue that regulatory guidance should constrain societal disruption as well as radiation exposure.

Thong Goh, Professor, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore, 117576, Singapore, tng@nus.edu.sg

There are many OR/MS courses at various levels that undergraduates can take. However, many non-OR/MS disciplines may offer such courses as credit accumulators, with both teachers and students having them as a subject of learning and not something permanent that lasts into the students’ subsequent working lives. This presentation discusses this issue with particular reference to engineering undergraduate education, and explore ways to alleviate the situation.

304