2015 Informs Annual Meeting

TC35

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

TC35 35-Room 412, Marriott Disaster and Emergency Management I Contributed Session Chair: Rafael Diaz, Research Associate Professor, Old Dominion University, 1040 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA, 23435, United States of America, rdiaz@odu.edu 1 - An Optimization Model for Seismic Hazard Loss Analysis for Spatially Distributed Infrastructure The new Optimization-based Probabilistic Scenario method produces a small set of probabilistic ground motion maps to represent the seismic hazard for analysis of spatial distributed infrastructure. A set of just 124 ground motion maps were able to match the hazard curves based on a million-year Monte Carlo simulation. This enormous computational savings has substantial implications for regional- scale since it can allow many more downstream analyses. 2 - A Model of the Effect of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Blood Supply Hussein Ezzeldin, FDA, CBER, 10903 New Hampshire Ave, Bldg 71 Rm 1009C, Silver Spring, MD, 20993, United States of America, hussein.ezzeldin@fda.hhs.gov, Arianna Simonetti, Richard Forshee We present the spatial and temporal impact of Pandemic Influenza (PI) on the US blood supply through an inter-regional blood transfer system. We utilize a hybrid optimization heuristic to enhance the global performance of the network. Using Neural Networks trained by Particle Swarm Optimization, we model a function of regional factors to optimize the daily blood transfers among US regions. We simulate the effect of PI on regional blood transfers and compare to those during normal operations. 3 - Agent-Based Modeling to Simulate Resilience of Water Systems for Healthy and Secure Communities Emily Berglund, Associate Professor, North Carolina State University, CB 7908, Raleigh, NC, 27695, United States of America, emily_berglund@ncsu.edu, Jacob Monroe, Hayden Strickling, Michael Knepper, Elizabeth Ramsey, M. Ehsan Shafiee Civic water systems are vulnerable to attacks and disasters that threaten the health and security of communities. When water service is lost due to a water quality failure or an attack on critical infrastructure, the decision-making of perpetrators, security personnel, utility managers, and the public can influence event outcomes. An agent-based modeling approach is developed to simulate the impact of sensing, communication, security, and infrastructure management on community resilience. 4 - Decision Support to Air Rescue Unit Allocation in Disaster Management Operations Sergio Reboucas, ITA, Rua H9C, Apt. 302, São Jose Dos Campos, SP, 12228612, Brazil, reb@ita.br After a disaster break up, rescue helicopters have a valuable role in response phase. The allocation of these air rescue units requires knowledge about certain conditions that are most of times uncertain and its analysis and trade-offs must be thoroughly done. This paper aims to suggest a methodology to support the air rescue unit allocation decision in a natural disaster response phase context. 5 - Modeling Housing Stock Recovery after a Catastrophic Storm Event Rafael Diaz, Research Associate Professor, Old Dominion University, 1040 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA, 23435, United States of America, rdiaz@odu.edu, David Earnest, ManWo Ng, Joshua G. Behr Severe catastrophic storm events adversely affect housing stock and regional capacity to build and repair houses. Rebuilding this capacity takes time while the region faces an unexpected surge in the demand. We present a simulation model that considers a supply chain perspective. The model provides significant insights for policy makers into how the production of permanent housing depends upon the uncertainties and feedback effects of material, labor, funds, and regulatory environments. Hasan Manzour, Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Box 352650, Seattle, WA, 98195-2650, United States of America, hmanzour@uw.edu, Rachel Davidson

TC36 36-Room 413, Marriott Humanitarian Applications III Sponsor: Public Sector OR Sponsored Session

Chair: Melih Celik, Middle East Technical University, ODTÜ Kampüsü Endüstri Mühendisligi, Oda 219 Cankaya, Ankara, 06800, Turkey, cmelih@metu.edu.tr 1 - Pre-disaster Unmanned Air Vehicle Base Location and Routing for Road Damage Assessment and Repair Seyyed Kian Farajkhah, Middle East Technical University, METU- Cankaya, Metu Campus Endöstri Möhendisligi, Ankara, 06800, Turkey, kian.farajkhah@metu.edu.tr, Melih Celik Following large-scale disasters, unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) can help efficiently gather data on the status of the roads in the network. Given a set of potential disaster scenarios, we address the problem of establishing connectivity between relief supply and demand by means of road repair. A two-stage stochastic model is developed to determine a UAV base location and time-limited routes so that the expected shortest path length between the supply and demand nodes is minimized. 2 - Disaster Operations Management: Recovery Classification and Research Framework Niratcha Grace Tungtisanont, PhD Candidate, Clemson University, 100 Regency Dr, #22, Central, SC, 29630, United States of America, ntungti@g.clemson.edu, Aleda Roth, Yann Ferrand We propose a research framework for improving post-disaster phase recovery. We address what types of investments should be made and their relative allocations in the “pre” and “during” emergency phases to improve the effectiveness of the recovery process? We use the proposed framework to draw managerial and policy implications. Chair: Naoru Koizumi, Assoc Professor, GMU, 3351 N Fairfax Dr, Arlington, VA, 22203, United States of America, nkoizumi@gmu.edu 1 - The Dynamics of Kidney Exchange John Dickerson, CMU, 9219 Gates-Hillman Center, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States of America, dickerson@cs.cmu.edu, Tuomas Sandholm We discuss analytic, optimization, and game-theoretic approaches to matching in dynamic kidney exchange. We consider dynamism (i) at the post-match pre- transplant stage (ii) as patients and donors arrive and depart over time, and (iii) as multiple exchanges compete for overlapping sets of participants. We empirically validate our models and theoretical results on over 150 match runs of the UNOS national kidney exchange. 2 - A New Model to Decide Kidney–Offer Admissibility Dependent on Patients’ Lifetime Failure Rate Michael Bendersky, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beersheba, Israel, michael.bendersky@gmail.com, Israel David We propose a new model to decide kidney-offer admissibility depending on patient’s age, estimated lifetime probabilistic profile and prospects on the waiting list. We allow for a broad family of lifetime distributions - Gamma - thus enabling flexible modeling of one’s survival under dialysis. It yields the optimal critical times for acceptance of offers of different qualities and may serve the organizer of a donation program, the surgeon and the individual recipient practicing patient- choice. 3 - Preemptive Approach to Kidney Allocation in USA Philip Appiahk-Kubi, Ohio University, 14 Pine St, Apt. #1B, The Plains, OH, 45780, United States of America, pa809911@ohio.edu The new kidney allocation policy improves kidney utilization. However, the policy has no consideration for allocation of cadaveric kidneys under emergency situations; a problem observed by the National Kidney Foundation. This research evaluates a point scoring model with considerations for emergency allocation. Simulated results indicate that the model minimizes number of waitlist deaths by 2% while prioritizing sensitive candidates and waiting time. TC37 37-Room 414, Marriott Kidney Allocation and Exchange Contributed Session

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