2015 Informs Annual Meeting

TD58

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

TD58 58-Room 110A, CC New Insights on Electricity Markets with Uncertain Supply Sponsor: ENRE – Energy I – Electricity Sponsored Session

Natural disasters such as Hurricane Sandy have seriously disrupted the power grids. To increase the resilience of a distribution system under natural disaster attacks, we propose a resilient distribution network design model considering hardening and distributed generation unit placement to minimize the load shedding under worst-case natural disaster attacks. 2 - Electric Resource Optimization with High Penetration Renewables and Varying Reliability Measures Cynthia Bothwell, Student, Johns Hopkins University, 117 Meridian Lane, Towson, MD, 21286, United States of America, cdbothwell@gmail.com, Calvin Wood As intermittent wind and solar energy resources increase in use throughout the electricity sector, techniques to assess system reliability are evolving. The optimization of investment in new capacity resources changes as a result of the reliability criteria applied to the system. This work overviews for policy and decision makers the tradeoffs between reliability criteria and generation investment with high penetrations of intermittent renewables for capacity planning and market design. 3 - Scheduling Energy Storage Resources to Provide Multiple Services Johanna Mathieu, Assistant Professor, University of Michigan, 1301 Beal Ave, Ann Arbor, Mi, 48109, United States of America, jlmath@umich.edu, Goran Andersson, Olivier Megel Most energy storage devices in power systems are only partially used most of time, and so they could also be used to help balance electricity supply and demand. The challenge is how to allocate their energy and power capacities to different services given uncertainty from multiple sources. We formulate the scheduling problem and apply both stochastic dynamic programming and stochastic dual dynamic programming to several case studies, and compare performance and computational complexity. 4 - Bidding Models for Price-responsive Loads in Electricity Markets Javier Saez-gallego, PhD Candidate, Technical University of Denmark, Matematiktorvet Building 303B, 019, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark, jsga@dtu.dk, Juan M. Morales, Marco Zugno This paper presents a data-driven approach to estimate the parameters of the market bid that best represents the stochastic and dynamic behavior of a pool of price-responsive consumers. The proposed methodology is based on inverse optimization and is able to leverage exogenous information, besides the electricity price, to partly explain the parameters of the bid. We use data relative to the Olympic Peninsula project to asses the performance of the proposed method. Chair: Huan Liu, PhD, Xi’an Jiaotong University, 28# Xianning West Road, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, 710049, China, liuhuan-look@163.com 1 - Rapid Analysis of Attentional Processes While Looking at Print Advertisements Based on Eye Tracking Hirotaka Aoki, Dr., Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1-W9-75, Oh-Okayama, Meguro-Ku, Tokyo, 152-8552, Japan, aoki.h.ad@m.titech.ac.jp This paper develops an eye tracking-based analysis framework for attentional processes during viewing print advertisements. The framework consists of a scheme for classification of information in advertising and principles for data interpretation from attentional processes perspectives. Based on a case study in which 20 consumers’ data during looking at insurance advertisements were collected, the potentials of our framework as well as implications for effective advertising design are discussed. 2 - Destructive Testing Gauge Capability Analysis David Kim, Professor, Oregon State University, 204 Rogers, Corvallis, OR, 97331, United States of America, david.kim@orst.edu, Xinyu Luo This research examines the current state-of-the-art in gauge capability analysis for destructive testing. Results are then presented that extend the specific destructive testing situations where gauge repeatability can be estimated. 3 - Project Timeliness or Project Effectiveness: Which One is Sacrificed? Asghar Afshar Jahanshahi, Postdoc, Pontifical Catholic University, Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860. Macul, Santiago, Chile, asghar@ing.puc.cl, Khaled Nawaser There is a consensus among scholars that real options reasoning is crucial for project performance under conditions of high environmental uncertainty. However, few empirical studies have confirmed this claim. Our longitudinal analysis of 101 electronic commerce projects, drawn from new technology ventures, indicated the differential effects of real options reasoning on project performance under conditions of high environmental state, effect and response uncertainty. TD60 60-Room 111A, CC Performance Measurement Contributed Session

Chair: Juan M. Morales, Associate Professor, Technical University of Denmark, Matematiktorvet, Building 303b, 008, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark, jmmgo@dtu.dk 1 - The Benefits of Sharing Reserves Between Countries: A Case Study of the European Electricity System Kenneth Van Den Bergh, PhD Researcher, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300 Box 2421, Leuven, Belgium, kenneth.vandenbergh@kuleuven.be, Robin Broder Hytowitz, Benjamin Hobbs, William D’Haeseleer, Erik Delarue Reserves are scheduled day-ahead in order to deal with forecast errors from wind and sun. This study examines reserve coordination in time and space for the Central European electricity system. Four scenarios involving various degrees of coordination for reserves are simulated. A large-scale unit commitment model is used to simulate the electricity markets. The study indicates savings in reserve allocation costs of up to 90% with increasing degree of coordination. 2 - Effect of Ramping Pricing Scheme in Systems with High Wind Energy Penetration Yves Smeers, Professor Emeritus, Université Catholique de Louvain, Voie du Roman Pays, 34, Louvain-la-neuve, B-1384, Belgium, yves.smeers@uclouvain.be, Sebastian Martin We consider the continuous version of an unit commitment problem with wind penetration, and subject to ramping constraints. The optimization problem assumes that ramping providers are priced at opportunity cost. We explore the impact of having different pricing schemes for ramping. We use a complementarity formulation in several versions that differ to reflect different policy proposals based on pricing schemes for ramping. 3 - A Stochastic Electricity Market Clearing Formulation with Consistent Pricing Properties Victor M. Zavala, Computational Mathematician, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL, 60439, United States of America, vzavala@mcs.anl.gov Deterministic clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day- ahead and real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We analyze a stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces absolute value penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price distortions that are bounded by the bid prices and we prove that day-ahead quantities and flows converge to the medians of real-time counterparts. 4 - On the Inefficiency of the Merit Order in Forward Electricity Markets with Uncertain Supply Juan M. Morales, Associate Professor, Technical University of Denmark, Matematiktorvet, Building 303b, 008, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark, jmmgo@dtu.dk, Salvador Pineda, Marco Zugno We derive analytically the dispatch rule for a stylized power system with infinite transmission capacity under a stochastic market-clearing mechanism. We provide conditions for this clearing procedure to break the merit order and for virtual bidding to ensure maximum market efficiency under a classical merit-order dispatch. Finally, we provide a reinterpretation of these two market-clearing procedures as members of a broader family that allows for marked-up forward production costs. TD59 59-Room 110B, CC Optimal Design and Operation of Smart Electrical Grids Sponsor: ENRE – Energy I – Electricity Sponsored Session Chair: Baosen Zhang, University of Washington, 185 Stevens Way, Seattle, WA, United States of America, zhangbao@uw.edu 1 - Design of Resilient Distribution Network Against Natural Disasters: A Robust Optimization Approach Bo Zeng, Assistant Professor, University of South Florida, Tampa, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, Tampa, Fl, 33620, United States of America, bzeng@usf.edu, Wei Yuan, Feng Qiu, Chen Chen, Jianhui Wang

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