2015 Informs Annual Meeting

WA78

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

3 - Modeling Processing Times for Based on Expert’s Estimates: Pert or Triangular? Uniform or Beta? Martha Centeno, Full Professor, University of Turabo, P.O. Box 3030, Industrial and Management Engineering, Gurabo, 00778- 3030, Puerto Rico, centenom1@suagm.edu, Kimberly Diaz, Karla Acevedo Simulating a system may require relying on the estimates of the experts to obtain a range and a most likely value. The question is: what is to use: Triangular or Pert? We present a study of the effect on typical measures of performance of using Pert or Triangular, Uniform or Beta. Based on results, we present guidelines to select one of these distributions. For example, Pert and concave Beta should be used for conservative decision making and triangular and convex Beta for an optimistic one. 4 - Agent Based Modeling of Uncertain Dynamic Markets with Contracts Pratik Misra, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., 7201 Hamilton Boulevard, Allentown, PA, 18195, United States of America, Misrap@airproducts.com, Sanjay Mehta, Cem Ozen, Yang Liu, Erdem Arslan Agent based modeling technique is employed to simulate uncertain markets that have geographical limits due high distribution costs and have time-bound contracts. Suppliers and customers are modelled as agents and macro-economic conditions are modelled as environment in which the agents interact and follow their programmed decision-rules. In this presentation, we will present general features of these models and share example case studies to show their utility in understanding such markets. 5 - An Agent Based Modeling Approach to Predicting Adoption of Critical Health Practices Noshir Contractor, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Tech D241, Evanston, IL, 60208, United States of America, nosh@northwestern.edu, Aaron Schecter The adoption of new health practices in rural areas is driven by a variety of factors, including opinions, opportunity, and external influences. However, it is analytically infeasible to determine exactly how opinions spread. Thus, we propose a series of agent based models to uncover the processes that lead to widespread adoption, as well as which individuals are most influential. Our models are based on survey data collected from over 10,000 government agents in India. Chair: Mohammadsadegh Mobin, PhD Fellow, Western New England University, 1215 Wilbraham Road,, Springfield, MA, 01119, United States of America, mm337076@wne.edu 1 - Quality Uncertainty and the Value of Coordination in a Closed Loop Supply Chain Juan Pedro Sepúlveda-Rojas, Associate Professor, University of Santiago of Chile, 3769 Ecuador Ave, Santiago, Chile, juan.sepulveda.ro@usach.cl We analyze total cost optimization in a SC with returns through global coordination. We develop a LP model that incorporates a quality factor about returning items for remanufacturing processes;the model is validated with different demand and returns scenarios, allowing comparison between instances with different variability in customer demand.The results highlight the value of the quantity and quality of returned products for supply chain members and how it might influence the uncertainty 2 - An Accelerated Benders Decomposition for Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Design Mohammad Jeihoonian, PhD Candidate, Concordia University, 1455 De Maisonneuve Blvd. W., Montreal, QC, H3G 1M8, Canada, m_jeihoo@encs.concordia.ca, Michel Gendreau, Masoumeh Kazemi Zanjani We present a mixed-integer programming formulation to design a closed-loop supply chain network for modular-structured products. The choice of the recovery option depends on the quality level of the composing components in the returned product. We develop an accelerated Benders decomposition-based solution algorithm. Computational results illustrate the efficiency of the solution method. 3 - Performance Evaluation of Closed Loop Systems with General Failure and Repair Times Mohammadsadegh Mobin, PhD Fellow, Western New England University, 1215 Wilbraham Road,, Springfield, MA, 01119, United States of America, mm337076@wne.edu, Morteza Assadi, S. Hossein Cheraghi, Zhaojun Li WA77 77-Room 300, CC Supply Chain Closed Loop I Contributed Session

This paper evaluates the performance of closed loop supply systems using the proposed modified extended bottleneck algorithm. It is shown that the algorithm exhibits better performance than the existing bottleneck algorithm for closed loop systems with generally distributed failure and repair times. The effectiveness of the developed algorithm is verified using a simulation model.

WA78 78-Room 301, CC Energy Applications Contributed Session

Chair: Zhenhong Lin, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2360 Cherehala Blvd, Knoxville, TN, 37932, United States of America, linz@ornl.gov 1 - A Risk-Based Approach to Modeling Industrial Loads in Non-Residential Buildings Seyed Vaghefi, Research Associate, Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation, 100 Brett Rd, Piscataway This work aims to develop a data-driven framework to predict and optimally control industrial loads in nonresidential buildings. In this framework, first, a set of predictive analytics tools are employed to identify the patterns of industrial loads over time. This includes a high-dimensional cluster analysis and a classification model to predict the day-ahead load profiles. The results are fed into a cost-based risk model to calculate and evaluate the total risk of energy decisions. 2 - An Iterative Two-stage Convex Relaxation Approach for Natural Gas Pipeline Transmission: A CNPC Case Mengying Xue, Tsinghua University, Department of Industrial Engineering, Beijing, 100084, China, xmy14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, Dingzhi Liu, Tianhu Deng The optimal dynamic planning of natural gas consumption is important to a nation’s economic sustainability and environmental protection. We study how China National Petroleum Corporation, the largest oil and natural gas producer and supplier in China, should dynamically plan its gas production, transportation and sales amount under certain nonlinear physical requirements. The designed system has been implement and used and is projected to save $34Billion from 2016-2020. 3 - Natural Gas Storage Valuation under Uncertainty Ebisa Wollega, Assistant Professor, Colorado State University- Pueblo, 2200 Bonforte Blvd, Pueblo, CO, 81001, United States of America, ebisa.wollega@csupueblo.edu, Hank Grant This paper presents a heuristic algorithm that natural gas storage decision makers can use to make storage decisions under uncertainty. The algorithm decreases the computation time significantly from hundreds of days to fractions of a second at a reasonable solution quality. 4 - Scenario Generation via Copula-arima Models: Risk Management for a Gas-fired Power Plant Xiaojia Guo, University College London, Dept. of Managment and Innovation, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, x.guo.11@ucl.ac.uk, Afzal Siddiqui, Giampiero Marra Gas-fired power plants face uncertainty in both electricity and natural gas prices, which tend to be positively correlated. We propose a copula-based approach to link two independent models and to generate scenarios for solving stochastic programming problems. We compare our approach with established methods, e.g., independent ARMA models and transfer functions, in terms of forecasting performance and providing solutions for the stochastic programming problem. 5 - Optimize Electric Driving Range under Range Uncertainty Zhenhong Lin, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2360 Cherehala Blvd, Knoxville, TN, 37932, United States of America, linz@ornl.gov This paper optimizes the driving ranges of battery electric vehicles (BEV) for U.S. drivers based on driving pattern, household vehicle flexibility, vehicle price, range anxiety, range uncertainty. Key results are the cumulative share of U.S. BEV consumers for a given optimal range and the sensitivity of such range distributions to battery cost, charging infrastructure, and range uncertainty. Township, NJ, 08854, United States of America, vaghefi@rutgers.edu, Mohsen Jafari, Farbod Farzan

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