2015 Informs Annual Meeting

WB41

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

WB42 42-Room 102B, CC Stochastic Models for Healthcare Applications Sponsor: Manufacturing & Service Oper Mgmt/Healthcare Operations Sponsored Session Chair: Pengyi Shi, Assistant Professor, Krannert School of Management, Purdue University, 403 W State St, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, United States of America, shi178@purdue.edu 1 - Approximating Emergency Department Census Levels via Simple Queueing Models Wanyi Chen, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 131 Providence Glen Dr, Chapel Hill, NC, 27514, United States of America, wanyic@live.unc.edu, Debbie Travers, Serhan Ziya, Nilay Argon, Kenneth Lopiano, Thomas Bohrmann, Abhi Mehrotra, Jeffery Strickler Using data from an emergency department, we investigate whether single station queueing models with time or state dependent arrival and service rates can be used to obtain good approximations for the census levels in practice. 2 - The Impact of Delay Announcement on Hospital Network Coordination Jing Dong, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Tech C210, Evanston, IL, United States of America, jing.dong@northwestern.edu, Elad Yom-tov, Galit Yom-tov We investigate the impact of delay announcement on the coordination within hospital networks using a combination of empirical observations and numerical experiments. We provide empirical evidence that patients do take delay information into account when choosing Emergency Departments. We also investigate factors that may affect the coordination level between hospitals. 3 - Identify Optimal Overflow Policies using Approximate Dynamic Programming Pengyi Shi, Assistant Professor, Krannert School of Management, Purdue University, 403 W State St, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, United States of America, shi178@purdue.edu, J. G. Dai To alleviate Emergency Department congestion, boarding patients who wait to be admitted to inpatient wards may have to be overflowed to a non-primary ward when they wait too long. We develop approximate dynamic programming tools to identify the optimal overflow policies under different system states. 4 - A Data-driven Model of an Appointment-Generated Arrival Process at an Outpatient Clinic Ward Whitt, Columbia University, IEOR Department, S. W. Mudd Building, New York, NY, United States of America, ww2040@columbia.edu, Won Chul Cha, Song Hee Kim We analyze appointment-system data from an endocrinology outpatient clinic and develop a stochastic arrival process model that can be used to simulate the clinic and evaluate alternative appointment strategies. Variability is caused by uncertain no-shows, unscheduled arrivals and earliness or lateness, but most importantly by the schedule itself. WB43 43-Room 103A, CC Revenue Management Problems with Consumer Choice Behaviors Sponsor: Revenue Management and Pricing Sponsored Session Chair: Zizhuo Wang, Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota, 111 Church Street S.E., Minneapolis, MN, United States of America, zwang@umn.edu 1 - When to Offer Upgrades? Rowan Wang, Singapore Management University, 50 Stamford Rd, Singapore, 178899, Singapore, rowanwang@smu.edu.sg, Yimin Yu, Huihui Wang We consider a firm that sells multiple product models corresponding to multiple classes of demand. The firm may offer customers free upgrade to a more expensive model when there is insufficient stock of the one preferred. However, customers may not accept the upgrade due to their preference on features of the desired model. It is interesting to see that, knowing some customers may reject the upgrade option, it might be optimal to offer upgrade earlier and before stockout.

2 - Should Firms Invest in Joint Promotions? Salma Karray, UOIT, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, ON, Canada, salma.karray@uoit.ca, Simon Pierre Sigue We investigate whether firms should invest in joint promotions for their complementary products with partners that are competitors in other product categories. We develop a game-theoretic model and solve for Nash equilibrium strategies. The main results show that spillover effects significantly affect the viability of such promotions. 3 - The Lot Sizing Problem under Price Competition Alejandro Lamas, Assistant Professor, NEOMA Business School, 1 Rue du Maréchal Juin, Mont Saint Aignan Cedex, 76825, France, alejandro.lamas@neoma-bs.fr, Philippe Chevalier We study simultaneous pricing and operations planning when two competitors face price sensitive demands. We model the operations of each competitor as a Lot Sizing Problem. We assume competitors choose prices from a discrete set, thus the complexity of computing a Nash Equilibrium increases with the size of the instance. By characterizing a Nash Equilibrium, we reduce the computational time of the problem. Joint Session MSOM-Health/HAS: Incentives in Healthcare Value Chain for Drugs and Consumables Sponsor: Manufacturing & Service Oper Mgmt/Healthcare Operations Sponsored Session Chair: Sepehr Nemati, Postdoctoral Fellow, Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, 1255 Western Road London, London, Canada, Sproon@ivey.uwo.ca 1 - Modeling the Ethics of Donating Dated Medical Supplies Quan Zhou, University of Auckland, 12 Grafton Road, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand, q.zhou@auckland.ac.nz, Tava Olsen Many developed countries hold medical supplies in reserve for emergencies that eventually become dated. For example, sterile packaging begins to lose its sterile seal over time. Although donating such dated medical supplies to developing nations could reduce expiration and benefit the recipients, it is not encouraged due to ethical concerns. Using a series of stochastic models, we investigate how donation would impact a recipient country’s social welfare, considering possible corruption effects. 2 - Two-Echelon Pharmaceutical Reverse Supply Chain Coordination with Customer Incentives Du’a Weraikat, PhD Candidate, Concordia University, 1420 Rue Towers Apt. 317, Montreal, Canada, d_wer@encs.concordia.ca, Masoumeh Kazemi Zanjani, Nadia Lehoux We explore the role of providing incentives to customers to encourage the returns of unexpired medications and to improve the performance of real pharmaceutical reverse supply chains (RSC). Also, we investigate the effect of having a coordination method between RSC entities on the recovery rate. Finally, a proper technique is proposed to share the RSC savings. The results indicate that introducing incentives enhances the recovery rate by 11.5% while improving the profitability of the RSC. 3 - How to Fight Fake Medicine with SMS Verification Technology Michael Beeler, PhD Candidate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E40-149, Cambridge, MA, The WHO estimates that up to 25% of medicine in poor countries could be counterfeit. We show that using covert, single-use product codes verifiable by SMS can reduce counterfeiting levels while improving manufacturer profit. Moreover, we find for certain drug markets, manufacturers can obtain further gains by offering small SMS-based rebates to consumers who verify products. Our paper presents an analytical framework for selecting such rebate levels to fight counterfeit drugs. 4 - Companion Diagnostics Co-Development with Patent Expiry and Additional Effort on Quality Sepehr Nemati, Postdoctoral Fellow, Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, 1255 Western Road London, London, Canada, Sproon@ivey.uwo.ca, Mehmet Begen, Gregory Zaric Developing safe and reliable companion diagnostic tests for an existing drug before the drug patent expires is shown to be a viable strategy for pharma companies to thrive their business. We study the problem that pharma companies face when they offer a contract to form partnerships with biotech companies for developing these tests. We propose a contract that maximizes the pharma’s profit while giving enough incentives to the biotech company to timely develop a high quality test. 02139, United States of America, beeler@mit.edu, David Simchi-levi, Cynthia Barnhart, Louis Chen WB41 41-Room 102A, CC

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