2015 Informs Annual Meeting

WB66

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

2 - Planning of Container Movement by Trucks in Metropolitan Area Samaneh Shiri, PhD Candidate, University of South Carolina, Department of Civil and Environmental Eng, 300 Main Street, Columbia, SC, 29208, United States of America, samashiri@gmail.com, Nathan Huynh To lower operation time of the drayage problem, the empty container and chassis allocation, and vehicle routing problem need to be coordinated. Most studies have considered these operations individually. In this work drayage firms hire owner- operators and should find the optimal tours for their own trucks and the owner-operators. A mathematical model is developed as an extension of the multiple traveling salesman problem with time windows that jointly schedules these operations. 3 - Using a Volatility Portfolio to Create Value Suzanne De Treville, Professor, University of Lausanne, Faculty of Business and Economics, Anthropole 3073, Lausanne, VD, 1015, Switzerland, suzanne.detreville@unil.ch, Kyle Cattani Quantitative finance tools allow us to price demand-volatility exposure: The volatility-exposure cost justifies local production. We demonstrate that a volatility portfolio combining time sensitive and time-insensitive products will outperform production of the high volatility product alone. The resulting strengthens the case for local manufacturing in a developed economy, and encourages innovation. WB64 64-Room 113A, CC Teaching Methods for Decision Analysis Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Richard McGrath, Assistant Professor, United States Naval Academy, 572M Holloway Rd, Annapolis, MD, 21402, United States of America, rmcgrath@usna.edu 1 - The Use of Prediction Markets in Teaching Decision Analysis We present an exercise in prediction markets from an introductory Decision Analysis course. For this assignment, students made predictions about the outcome of future uncertain events, and were incentivized both as individuals and as a group to make accurate predictions through the award or loss of class grade points. Events used for this exercise included major sports competitions, Federal Reserve monetary policy actions, class cancellations due to weather, and popular culture awards. 2 - Teaching Decision Making to Teens, to Executives, to the Government and to the Population at Large Ali Abbas, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Public Policy and Director of Create, University of Southern California, 3710 McClintock Avenue, RTH 314, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America, aliabbas@price.usc.edu This talk will reflect on methods of teaching decision analysis that have been used in various settings. The talk will emphasize what works and what does not work for a given audience. Lessons learned and commonalities will also be presented. Richard McGrath, Assistant Professor, United States Naval Academy, 572M Holloway Rd, Annapolis, MD, 21402, United States of America, rmcgrath@usna.edu WB65 65-Room 113B, CC Decision Making: Tradeoffs, Risk Processing and Altruism Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Yitong Wang, University of Technology Sydney, UTS Business School, University of Technoloy Sydney, Sydney, NS, 2007, Australia, Yitong.Wang@uts.edu.au 1 - Markov Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Cancer Treatment Jiarui Bai, University of California, Irvine, CA, 6464 Adobe Circle, Irvine, United States of America, jiarub@uci.edu, Robin Keller We present a way to build a Markov decision tree to model cancer progression and cost-effectiveness analysis for two or more cancer treatments. We propose several problems researchers can encounter in this kind of research and provide possible solutions.

2 - The Existence of Altruistic Value Functions Jay Simon, American University, jaysimon@american.edu Altruism is a popular economic and psychological explanation for a wide range of pro-social decisions and actions, and is a descriptively compelling model of behavior. This work provides a theoretical framework for the existence of ordinal and cardinal altruistic value functions based on an altruistic preference relation over a set of outcomes. 3 - Revisiting Risk-as-feelings: Cognitive Processing Style Moderates The Affect Heuristic Eugene Chan, Lecturer, University of Technology, Sydney, P.O. Box 123, Broadway, NS, 2008, Australia, Eugene.Chan@uts.edu.au People do not solely rely on their rational evaluations about risks, but also their affect-based intuitions. This paper shows that people’s cognitive processing style moderates the affect heuristic. The heuristic primarily occurs among visualizers because they mentally picture risks that might ensue, making them perceive risks as more risky. Thus, this paper illuminates how different individuals perceive risks, with implications for risk research, public policy, and decision-making. 4 - An Eye Tracking Study on Decision Making: Information Processing and Reading Habits Yitong Wang, University of Technology Sydney, UTS Business School, University of Technoloy Sydney, Sydney, NS, 2007, Australia, Yitong.Wang@uts.edu.au, Tianjun Feng, Antonin Genot, Lei Zhao We investigates decision makers’ information-processing patterns in decisions under risk and over time by using eye-trackers. We find that decision makers employ more alternative-based than attribute-based procedures. In addition, we find that reading habits play an important role in information processing - the results suggest that screen display moderates decision makers’ information- processing procedures. Chair: Alexandre Jacquillat, PhD Candidate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building E40-240, Cambridge, MA, 02116, United States of America, alexandre.jacquillat@gmail.com 1 - A Mechanism for the Strategic Reduction of Air Traffic Congestion Luca Corolli, Universit‡ degli Studi di Trieste, Via Valerio 10, Trieste, 4127, Italy, lcorolli@units.it, Tatjana Bolic, Lorenzo Castelli, Desirée Rigonat En route congestion is currently detected on the day of operation of flights. We develop a new strategic mechanism based on integer optimization that seeks to prevent en route congestion through an early redistribution of air traffic. The mechanism assigns flights departure and arrival times and routes, based on airline requests. The benefit of using this mechanism is shown on a real instance with 30,000 European flights that is solved in short computation times. 2 - Design and Simulation of a Pushback Rate Control Policy at Philadelphia International Airport Patrick Mcfarlane, Graduate Research Assistant, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139, United States of America, pmcfar@mit.edu, Hamsa Balakrishnan This analysis designs and simulates an airport surface congestion management policy that controls the departure pushback rate at Philadelphia airport. The policy mitigates surface congestion at the airport and results in taxi-out time reductions. The simulations also consider issues such as fairness of allocation, and the impacts of operational constraints such as gate conflicts, that would Abdul Qadar Kara, Asst. Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, P.O. Box 5067, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia, aqkara@kfupm.edu.sa In my earlier work, a model was built on basic econometric principle of congestion pricing embedded within an optimization model. The model provided a mechanism to manage airport runway capacity reduction. The current work reports further analysis of the model and its response against the multiple unscheduled changes in capacity of the runway at different times on day of operation. WB66 66-Room 113C, CC Aviation Day of Operations and Air Traffic Optimization Sponsor: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session accompany actual implementation of the proposed policy. 3 - Analysis of Congestion Pricing Model to Handle “Day of Operations” Airport Capacity Reduction

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