2015 Informs Annual Meeting

WB77

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

2 - Stochastic Modeling and Reliability Analysis of Corroded Pipelines for Inspection Planning Seyedeh Azadeh Miran, Research Assistant Graduate Student, University of Akron, 302 East Buchtel Avenue, ASEC405, akron, OH, 44325, United States of America, sm214@zips.uakron.edu, Qindan Huang Time-dependent reliability analysis of inspected defects is performed using first order reliability method based on two failure modes (small and large leaks). Time- dependent corrosion growth models are considered for the defect depth and length where growth model unknown parameters are determined using Bayesian updating through MCMC. Finally, inspection planning is proposed. 3 - Information Source Selection for Multimode Process Monitoring Marcelo Bacher, PhD Candidate, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, Israel, mgbacher@post.tau.ac.il, Irad Ben-Gal We present an SPC framework using Information Theoretic measurements for monitoring multi-mode systems. We aim at directly learning the data dependencies representing the modes without relying on prior information. We assume dependence among features and that the data gathered from multiple sensors generate overlapping clusters that are not necessarily Gaussian-like distributed. Comparative results with real data validate the potential use of the proposed method for monitoring such systems. 4 - Battery Life Estimation Based on Statistical Model Combined with Physical Degradation Behaviors Shufeng LI, University of Houston, Room NT0403, 4401 Wheeler, Houston, TX, 77004, United States of America, sli33@uh.edu, Qianmei Feng, Yin Shu Remaining useful life prediction methods have been widely applied for lithium ion batteries in the electronics and automotive industries. Statistical models based on physical degradation behaviors of lithium ion batteries have not been well established. This paper develops a statistical method to model the battery performance degradation that is induced by aging mechanism. The life distribution is estimated and case study shows the effectiveness of the proposed method. WB76 76-Room 204C, CC Simulation II Contributed Session Chair: Bharat Bhole, RIT, 92 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY, 14623, United States of America, bharat.bhole@rit.edu 1 - Investigation of the Existence of AFIB Sources in Left Atria of Heart using Intracardiac Electrogram This paper concentrates on a way to investigate the existence of AF sources by analyzing Intracardiac Electrogram. Intracardiac Electrogram has been recorded during catheter ablation surgeries of five patients and can be characterized by identifying different properties; i.e. cycle length, interspike interval distance, amplitude. In this paper different features has been extracted from intracardiac electrogram from different sets of patients and later analyzed to identify different patterns. 2 - A System Dynamics Approach to Study the Barriers to Primary Care Access for Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Women Fatima Irshaidat, Binghamton University, 25 Narwood St, Johnson City, NY, 13790, United States of America, firshai1@binghamton.edu Socioeconomically disadvantaged women have more capabilities to visit PCP after Medicaid Expansion. This study evaluates whether Medicaid expansion is actually improving access of care for these women in the poor neighborhoods & identify the actual barriers preventing those women from utilizing primary care. A systems dynamics model is created using Vensim to capture causes behind access barriers to PCP. The case of breast and cervical cancer screenings is specifically studied. 3 - Using Multi-agent-based Simulation to Model Pedestrians Behavior and Interactions Lindsay Alvarez, Full Professor, Universidad Distrital, Carrera 7 No. 40B - 53 Piso 5, Ingenieria Industrial, Bogota, Colombia, lindsayalvarez@yahoo.com, Martha Centeno, Felipe Pacheco, Andrés Sánchez We present a methodology to use Multi-Agent Based simulation as a tool to model pedestrians as independently thinking individuals, who move at their own speed, and may or may not abide by spatial restrictions. We have conducted fieldwork in Bogot·, developed a methodology, and built simulation models. Results indicate that these type of simulation models are effective to model pedestrian’s behavior, so that it can be included in the design and construction of pedestrian’s tunnels and crosswalks. Sharmin Mithy, Graduate Research Assistant, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Ave, Tampa, FL, 33620, United States of America, sharminmithy@mail.usf.edu

4 - A Simulation Approach for Trading Natural Gas Futures Amine Kamali, The University of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 436, Norman, OK, 73019, United States of America, amine@ou.edu, Hank Grant This research focuses on developing a simulation framework that models the impact of speed of high-frequency traders trading natural gas futures contracts. Different scenarios are simulated and the data collected are compared to historical data. In this setting, faster traders are more profitable. 5 - The Effect of Self-selection Bias on the Effectiveness of Online Reviews Bharat Bhole, RIT, 92 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY, 14623, United States of America, bharat.bhole@rit.edu, Brid Hanna It has been shown that online reviews suffer from self-selection bias. We investigate whether this bias adversely affects the effectiveness of online reviews. Effectiveness is measured by the market share of the higher quality product in a model with two products. We show that bias can improve the effectiveness of reviews. Further, in situations where it fails to do so, it is mostly when the bias is extreme to the extent that appears unlikely to be the case in reality. WB77 77-Room 300, CC Supply Chain Closed Loop II Contributed Session Chair: Yertai Tanai, Kent State University, Department of Management & Information S, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44242-0001, United States of America, ytanai@kent.edu 1 - Quality and Information Coordination for False Failure Returns Eylem Koca, Assistant Professor, Ozyegin University, Nisantepe District, Orman Street, Cekmekoy, Istanbul, 34794, Turkey, eylemkoca@gmail.com A significant portion of consumer returns are false failures with no defects. We consider a supply chain setting with one manufacturer, who decides on the design quality, and one retailer, who decides on informational efforts, both of which affect the false failure returns, and we study supply chain coordination avenues under various scenarios regarding the re-valuation of such returns. 2 - Optimal Incentive and Production Decisions for an Integrated- forward Reverse Supply Chain Pankaj Dutta, Associate Professor, IITBombay, SJM School of Management, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India, pdutta@som.iitb.ac.in, Debabrata Das This paper proposes an optimization model for an integrated forward-reverse supply chain to determine optimum incentive amount that needs to be offered to consumers on returning back a used product. Further, proposed model decides optimum manufacturing, remanufacturing and disposal quantity so that legislation criterion of minimum collection is fulfilled and overall profit of integrated system is maximized. Necessary conditions for the concavity of the proposed profit function are also derived. 3 - Coordinating Supply Chain for Consumers Returns Yertai Tanai, Kent State University, Department of Management & Information S, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44242-0001, United States of America, ytanai@kent.edu, Emmanuel Dechenaux, Alfred Guiffrida, Eddy Patuwo Given the complex nature of processing returned products in a supply chain, firms have adopted the strategy of outsourcing the returns handling to third party reverse logistics providers (3PRLP). We consider a supply chain design where multiple 3PRLP’s compete to process the returns. We formulate Nash equilibrium game among 3PRLP’s

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