2015 Informs Annual Meeting

WC36

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

WC36 36-Room 413, Marriott Modeling Disease Transmissions Using Contact Networks Sponsor: Public Sector OR Sponsored Session Chair: Chaitra Gopalappa, University of Massachusetts, 160 Governors Drive, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States of America, chaitrag@umass.edu 1 - Understanding Feedback Between Behavioral Interventions and Disease Evolution Kaja Abbas, Assistant Professor, Virginia Tech, Dept. of Vet Med, Blacksburg VA, United States of America, kaja.abbas@vt.edu, Achla Marathe, Samarth Swarup, Achla Marathe, Samarth Swarup Disease evolution and behavioral responses to outbreaks are interrelated through a complicated feedback process. Just like the disease, individuals’ perceptions and behaviors continuously evolve resulting in self-guided behavioral adaptations. Some of these adaptations dynamically change the social contact network, which in turn affects the opportunities for transmission of the disease. This research will describe the computational methods that account for these feedback. 2 - Spread on Dynamic Networks: Calibration and Forward Reachable Sets Benjamin Armbruster, Northwestern University, 2514 Sheridan Rd, Evanston, IL, United States of America, armbrusterb@gmail.com We discuss various topics about spread on networks including (1) calibrating the network dynamics of a detailed agent-based model of HIV spread and (2) the notion of a forward reachable set, an extension of connectivity or reach to dynamic networks, specifically, the set of all nodes that could have been infected/reached in a certain time. We derive simple analytic results on its growth. 3 - Network Modeling of HIV Chaitra Gopalappa, University of Massachusetts, 160 Governors Drive, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States of America, chaitrag@umass.edu Very few models in the literature on HIV consider partnership networks, specifically partnership concurrency, for simulating transmissions. We evaluate the differences in estimated new infections with and without inclusion of concurrency by modeling sexual behavior among the different risk groups in the US. 4 - Impact of a Potential Human-to-Human Transmittable H7N9 Pandemic Outbreak in the U.S. Walter Silva Sotillo, PhD Student, University of South Florida and Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, 4202 E. Fowler Ave, Av. Universitaria 1801. Lima Peru, Tampa, FL, 33620, United States of America, silvasotillo@mail.usf.edu, Tapas K. Das From March 2013 until March 2015, WHO reported more than 640 cases (with 35% fatality) of H7N9 flu, most from the mainland of China. There are some cases reported on February 2015 that cannot be excluded from a potential human-to-human transmission scenario. We use data from recent reports and an Agent-based simulation model to predict a potential impact of H7N9 pandemic outbreak in the U.S. WC37 37-Room 414, Marriott Health Care Strategy and Policy I Contributed Session Chair: Jie Song, Peking University, Room 512,Fangzheng Building, Beijing, China, songjie@coe.pku.edu.cn 1 - A Manufacturer’s View of the United States Healthcare System Kurt Masten, Drexel University, Gerri C Lebow Hall, 3220 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, United States of America, kam478@drexel.edu The traditional and idealistic vision of a doctor making a house call to a sick patient is not representative of how the process actually works. This research takes a novel approach to modeling the healthcare system from a parts manufacturing perspective that questions the typical assumptions of healthcare as a service and the patient as the customer. Potential improvements are considered based on JIT, lean, and other established manufacturing practices.

2 - Feedback of Standardized Clinical Process on Patient Satisfaction

Yunsik Choi, PhD Candidate, Clemson University, 100 Sirrine Hall, Clemson, SC, 29634-1305, United States of America, yunsikc@clemson.edu, Aleda Roth, Lawrence Fredendall To better understand the standardized clinical process that support or inhibit front-line nurses’ patient care, this study identifies positive (e.g., task time reduction & problem identification) and negative feedback (e.g., use of shortcuts, perceived workload intensity) driven by the standardized process that affect patient satisfaction. 3 - Supporting Health Policy through Modeling and Microsimulation Steven Cohen, Vice President, DSDS, Research Triangle Institute, 3040 East Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, United States of America, scohen@ahrq.gov There is a growing demand for timely, accurate and precise estimates of health care parameters at the national and sub-national levels in concert with data resources to inform policy and practice. Critical measures include health insurance coverage, health care utilization, and expenditures. This presentation will focus on issues of data quality and the statistical integrity of modeling efforts. 4 - Is the Public-private Partnership Healthcare Program Socially Beneficial? Jie Song, Peking University, Room 512,Fangzheng Building, Beijing, China, songjie@coe.pku.edu.cn, Jianpei Wen, Frank Youhua Chen, Yimin Yu Motivated by the long indirect waiting time in Hong Kong’s public hospitals, a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program was proposed for certain elective surgeries, which consists of a government subsidy and a threshold number for the waitlist. We propose a novel queuing model incorporating choice behavior of heterogeneous time-sensitive customers through MNL. The customer equilibrium joining behavior shows how the mechanism affects the overall social warfare in the PPP system. Chair: Jin Qin, Doctoral Student, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan, China, Wuhan, China, qinjinhust@gmail.com 1 - Regression Based Relaxation Solution Approach for Fixed Charge Network Flow Problem Weili Zhang, Graduate Research Assistant, University of Oklahoma, 829 E Lindsey St, Norman, OK, 73071, United States of America, weili.zhang-1@ou.edu, Charles Nicholson In this paper, a novel solution approach to the fixed charge network flow (FCNF) problem named regression based relaxation (RBR) is developed. RBR employs the probability of arc usage to form a new linear programming problem. Through rigorous testing, RBR outperforms linear programming relaxation and relaxation induced neighborhood search regardless of the complexity of the problem. In addition, the improvement of integrating RBR in the exact solver is robust for large FCNF problems. 2 - Travelling Salesman with Multiple Means of Transportation and Switching Cost Qiwen Wang, Peking University, Guanghua School of Management, Beijing, 100871, China, wqw@gsm.pku.edu.cn, Yingjie Lan We study a modified travelling salesman problem (TSP), where there are multiple transportation means (e.g., by aircraft, train, or car) between cities and there is a cost of switching from one means of transportation to another in a city. Not all transportation means are available between some cities. We provide an integer programming formulation, and design specialized heuristics to solve the problem. 3 - New Robust Efficiency Measures for Knapsack Problems Christopher Wishon, PhD Candidate, Arizona State University, 633 W. Southern Ave, #1195, Tempe, AZ, 85282, United States of America, cwishon@asu.edu, J. Rene Villalobos New efficiency measures have been developed for solving all multi-constraint knapsack problem variants. Using these measures, three solution heuristics are presented for solving the multi-demand, multi-dimensional knapsack problem: fixed-core reduction, genetic algorithm, and kernel search. Test cases have been solved using these heuristics demonstrating that the measures can be used to identify the same or better solutions than commercial software in a shorter time in a majority of cases. WC38 38-Room 415, Marriott Optimization Heuristic Programming Contributed Session

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