2015 Informs Annual Meeting

WC73

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

WC71 71-Room 202B, CC Transportation Operations II Contributed Session

WC73 73-Room 203B, CC Data Analytics for Reliability Evaluation and Maintenance Optimization II Sponsor: Quality, Statistics and Reliability Sponsored Session Chair: Eunshin Byon, Assistant Professor, University of Michigan, 1205 Beal Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, United States of America, ebyon@umich.edu Co-Chair: Qingyu Yang, Assistant Professor, Wayne State University, Elsayed Elsayed, Rutgers University, 96 Frelinghuysen Road, CoRE Building,Room 201, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, United States of America, elsayed@rci.rutgers.edu, Dingguo Hua Many applications can be modeled as k-out-of-n pairs: G Balanced systems. When there are a large number of units in such systems, it is very tedious and impossible to enumerate the complete set of successful events to obtain the exact function of its reliability. We provide an approach to obtain approximation for the reliability of such systems. We validate the approximation by comparing its results with systems with a small number of units and through the simulation of larger systems. 2 - A Wiener Process Model for Heterogeneous Degradations Based on Kriging Nan Chen, National University of Singapore, isecn@nus.edu.sg, Eunshin Byon Wiener process plays a crucial role in degradation modeling and condition based maintenance for critical assets. This paper proposes a Wiener process model based on Kriging to provide a flexible way to account for heterogeneous degradation patterns commonly observed due to observable or unobservable factors. It includes conventional random effects model and covariate model as special cases, and offers efficient computation. Numerical studies have been conducted to demonstrate the performance. 3 - Condition-based Joint Maintenance Optimization for a Large-scale Homogeneous Population Young Myoung Ko, Assistant Professor, Pohang University of We develop a cost-effective maintenance strategy for systems consisting of homogeneous units. When a large number of units operate in a system, translating the stochastic degradation processes of individual units into system- level information remains a significant challenge. We use the asymptotic distribution for characterizing the system-level condition and analytically derive the threshold values that trigger maintenance operations. The results are verified through numerical experiments. 4 - Uncertainty Analysis for Importance Sampling Estimators with Stochastic Simulations Youngjun Choe, PhD Candidate, University of Michigan, 1205 Beal Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, United States of America, yjchoe@umich.edu, Eunshin Byon Stochastic simulations are widely used to model real-world stochastic systems and to evaluate the system reliability. Yet, the reliability evaluation can take significant computational resources as the simulator becomes more realistic. To speed up the computer experiments, our prior study proposed new importance sampling estimators. This study establishes the central limit theorems for the estimators and constructs asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Science and Technology, 77, Cheongam-ro, Nam-Gu, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 790-784, Korea, Republic of, youngko@postech.ac.kr, Eunshin Byon 4815 4th street, Room 2167, Detroit, MI, 48202, United States of America, qyang@wayne.edu 1 - Reliability Approximation for k-out-of-n Pairs: G Balanced Systems

Chair: Ioannis Akrotirianakis, Siemens Corporate Technology, 750 College Road, Princeton, NJ, United States of America, ioannis.akrotirianakis@siemens.com 1 - Optimization of Area Traffic Control: A Binary Mixed Integer Linear Programming Approach

Zhao Zhang, Researcher Assistant, Tsinghua University, Room 615, Shude Bbuilding, Beijing, 100084, China, zzaxx@tsinghua.edu.cn

This paper proposes a model aims at optimizing area traffic control. We use network total delay as the objective in the model. In this research, cell transmission model is used to discretize research time into many intervals and signal coordination, lane settings, phase, start of green and green split can be optimized simultaneously. The model is linear in nature and can be solved by standard branch and bound algorithm. 2 - A Finite Sampling Approach for MPEC Wenjing Song, Pennsylvania State University, 628B Oakwood Ave, State College, PA, 16803, United States of America, wus145@psu.edu, Terry Friesz, Hongcheng Liu, Tao Yao We study mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) from equilibrium network design problems. We consider the scenario where the equilibrium constraint has a non-closed-form operator, and propose a finite sampling approximation with a tunable error bound. Under some regularity conditions, the approach allows MPEC to be solvable by gradient-based local schemes to an approximate KKT solution with bounded infeasibility. The approach is applied to a congestion toll pricing problem. 3 - Travel Time Transmission Model for Network Loading at Merging, Diverging Segments, and Intersections Peter J. Jin, Assistant Professor, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, CoRE 613, 96 Frelinghuysen Rd, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, United States of America, peter.j.jin@rutgers.edu, Stephen Boyles, Wangsu Hu The research presents an enhanced travel time transmission model(TTM) based dynamic network loading (DNL) model for freeway merging, diverging segment and signalized intersections. The study further evaluates the capability of TTM in formulating node delay. A network adapted from field flow, signal and network data of the US-1 at Far West Interchange in Austin TX is used. The modeling results are compared with the output of a CTM(Cell Transmission Model) based DNL model. 4 - Vehicle (Lagrangian)-space Freeway Traffic State Estimation: A Lagrangian Kalman Filter Approach Han Yang, PhD, Tongji University, Cao’an Road 4800, Shanghai, China, yanghan900121@163.com, Peter J. Jin Lagrangian coordinates has shown the potential numerical benefits in modeling mobile sensor data. A new Kalman filter based Lagrangian-space traffic state estimation model is proposed based on the Travel Time Transmission Model (TTM). The model is calibrated and evaluated by using a simulation model calibrated with field data on IH-894 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and compared with a CTM-based Kalman filter estimator on space-time coordinates under different sampling rates of probe vehicles. 5 - Vehicle Routing for the Radiopharmaceutical Industry Ioannis Akrotirianakis, Siemens Corporate Technology, 750 College Road, Princeton, NJ, United States of America, ioannis.akrotirianakis@siemens.com, Amit Chakraborty We develop a model for the distribution of radiopharmaceuticals. Our aim is to serve many medical imaging centers within a pre-specified time interval at minimum transportation cost. The model ensures all orders arrive at the centers before the patients enter the PET scanners. It also takes into consideration the availability and capacity of the transportation vehicles. The efficiency of the model is supported by computational results demonstrating substantial savings in transportation costs.

451