WCA May 2017

From the Americas

Defence spending is expected to rise in the USA under President Donald Trump, at least initially. (“Global Aerospace Boom Is Over, But Likely No Bust Ahead – Analyst,” 15 th February). As noted by Reuters , in the commercial aircraft market a ramp-up in output of single-aisle Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 aircraft will likely go according to plan. The two plane makers aim to increase output by more than 30 per cent through to the end of the decade and need the income from these high-volume assembly lines to hit their financial targets. “This is the part of the market where you’re going to see continued growth,” said Mr Aboulafia. But he believes twin-aisle aircraft face a much tougher future because there are more models competing even as demand is declining. “Everyone wants too much from this market,” he said: orders are “plateauing.” Reuters reporter Alwyn Scott noted these caveats from Mr Aboulafia:  Higher interest rates and a possible border tax (the value added tax on imported goods favoured by President Donald Trump) could hurt the USA aerospace industry by causing a further strengthening of the dollar;  Also, the risk of a major trade dispute is as high as at any time since World War II. A USA-China trade dispute would, the aerospace analyst believes, likely benefit Airbus since China could easily retaliate against the USA by curbing orders of Boeing planes.  Reuters also observed that any aerospace industry slowdown always has implications for suppliers, who must anticipate the flow of orders as a guide to the capacity they will need to meet changes in aircraft production. From the US military, a portable capture system for drones anticipates launch and retrieval from ships, trucks and ground facilities As drones figure ever more prominently in the news, thought needs to be given to capture of the unmanned craft in case of misadventure. Michael Cooney, the online news editor at Network World , has reported on a research project for catching full-sized military drones mid-flight without destroying them. The brainchild of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the system known as SideArm has features in common with the launch-and-trap system for planes berthed on aircraft carriers. DARPA said that SideArm developer Aurora Flight Sciences (Manassas, Virginia) has successfully tested a full-scale system that repeatedly captured a 400-pound Lockheed Martin Fury unmanned aircraft launched from a catapult and accelerated to flight speed. A Fury can achieve over 130mph. SideArm is reportedly capable of recovering aircraft up to 1,100 pounds. (“How to Catch a 400 Pound Drone Traveling at Full Speed,” 6 th February). According to DARPA, the small size of the system derives from the concentration of its equipment into a single rail that folds for easy transport. In a departure from the traditional method of catching the drone in a net, SideArm snags a hook on the back of the drone and directs the hook to travel down

‘The Wall’ In a step toward delivering on a campaign promise, the Trump administration seeks input on walling off the USA from Mexico US Customs and Border Protection, the largest law enforcement agency of the Department of Homeland Security, on 24 th February issued a preliminary request for proposals in advance of a formal solicitation “for the design and build of several prototype wall structures in the vicinity of the United States border with Mexico.” Vendors were asked to submit prototype concepts, with cost estimates to follow promptly. Although no funding for the project has been arranged, the agency said that “multiple awards” were contemplated by mid-April. Mr Trump in January signed an executive order to begin preliminary steps toward building a wall which could stretch almost 2,000 miles from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean. As reported by Bloomberg News , Konstantin Kakaes, an international security fellow with the New America Foundation, estimated the cost of a 1,000-mile concrete wall 50 feet high, with 10 feet below ground, at $38 billion. According to Bloomberg reporters Cary O’Reilly and Robert Levinson, construction companies that may respond to the preliminary request for proposals include Bechtel Group Inc, which builds airports and nuclear power plants and has done almost $3 billion in USA government work since the beginning of fiscal 2013; BL Harbert International Inc, a construction company ($2 billion); and Caddell Construction Co ($1.9 billion). Presuming the barrier is in fact erected, an irony of the massive undertaking to wall the USA off from Mexico is that one of the major beneficiaries could be Mexico’s Cemex SAB, the largest cement maker in the Americas. Messrs O’Reilly and Levinson pointed out that Cemex is one of the best-positioned companies to profit because it has operations on both sides of the border. (“Trump Administration Makes Its First Move to Build Border Wall,” 24 th February) An analyst sees military orders as helping the world’s two big plane makers to weather the downturn in their industry “The great boom is over,” aerospace consultant Richard Aboulafia said at an industry conference in the Seattle area in February, in reference to the decline in demand for commercial jetliners made by Boeing Co, of the USA, and Europe’s Airbus. But the Teal Group analyst said he expects rising sales of military aircraft to head off any “bust cycle.” Mr Aboulafia, who writes and edits Teal Group’s World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing , a forecasting advisory covering some 135 aircraft programmes and markets, told Reuters that multi-year backlogs of jetliner orders at both big plane makers will cushion the downturn. Rising sales of spy and fighter planes will also help. Aircraft

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Wire & Cable ASIA – May/June 2017