The Need for Organisational Resilience - Chapter 2

Outlook

From a French perspective, the fallacy of predeterminism came true, with monumental

consequences. It is not that the French did not engage with scenario planning or war games;

nor did they fail to prepare for contingencies, for a Plan B. They did plan for a range of

scenarios, including one where the Germans tried to cross the river Meuse at the southern

edge of the Maginot Line. However, these scenarios were deemed unlikely, close to being

impossible, despite contrary evidence from preceding campaigns, such as the Polish

campaign. In full view of the world, the Germans displayed their capabilities to deal with

rugged or forested terrain, their ability to cross rivers and punch through enemy fortification

lines. Regardless, the French remained confident that this evidence of the state of modern

warfare did not apply to them. From their perspective, the world had stood still since WWI.

Their linear strategy − expecting another war of attrition, expecting to gradually wear down

an enemy − was based on a straightforward long-term goal. It allowed simple planning,

efficient and ‘foolproof’ for a French population that needed reassurance. Since the

cessation of WW1 hostilities, the French and their Allies had planned for numerous

scenarios and prepared for contingencies. But their lack of readiness to envisage any

scenario other than a German push through the Low Countries sealed the fate of France.

Organisations may similarly give in to the temptation to follow a linear strategy, being

fixated on a long-term goal and oblivious of changes in the environment that can erode an

organisation’s robustness in withstanding those very changes. A Linear Strategy provides

certainty and is generally more efficient, but only in the short-term. By the time

environmental changes have exceeded the organisation’s degree of robustness, it may

already be too late to bounce back, to be resilient enough to survive. This is what happened

in the case of Kodak.

Reflection

To what extent does your work unit adhere to a Linear or Adaptive Strategy? For each item, select one box only that best reflects your conclusion.

Neutral

We spend a lot of effort defining our long-term goals, and they are ‘set in stone’

We define long-term goals but they remain ‘flexible’

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