Economic Report 2020

IEA Sustainable Development Scenario IEA Sustainabl Development Scenario

16,000

Other Renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Coal

Natural Gas Oil

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000 Energy Demand (Mtoe)

2,000

0

2010

2018

2019

2025

2030

2040

Source: IEA

An energy outlook in line with the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario would mean significant changes in the composition of the energy sector. In 2019, hydrocarbons (oil, gas and coal) met 81 per cent of global demand, with oil and gas accounting for roughly 55 per cent (31 and 23 per cent, respectively). 7 By 2040, in this most rapid transition scenario, oil and gas will provide 46 per cent of energy needs (23 per cent each) with significant reductions in coal (which falls to 10 per cent). Significant growth in electricity demand, mainly provided by solar and wind power, will replace much of this hydrocarbon reduction. The continued need for oil and gas in this most ambitious

scenario puts further emphasis on current strategies by the sector to reduce emissions associated with the production of oil and gas and to deepen understanding of how its unique skills can be deployed to decarbonise other industries which cannot meet climate change targets through electricity alone. At the same time, it is likely that oil and gas, alongside nuclear, hydropower, bioenergy and other renewables will continue to serve as part of a diverse and adaptive energy mix that utilises multiple sources in a wide range of future demand scenarios. The need to retain a safe, secure and affordable energy supply applies equally to the UK as at global level (as shown overleaf).

7 https://www.iea.org/topics/world-energy-outlook

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