Economic Report 2020

ECONOMIC REPORT 2020

UKCS Resource Outlook

Sanctioned Volumes 70-90% Chance of Development Produced Volumes

> 90% Chance of Development < 70% Chance of Development Roadmap2035 Production Profile

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

Production / Reserves (Million boe per year)

0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: OGA

In is possible that production will decline by around 50 per cent by 2025, meaning that net imports of oil and gas would inevitably increase. The improvements in the competitveness of the basin in the second half of the decade have attracted a range of new investors to the UKCS. The eco-system of players operating in the basin has evolved significantly in recent years, particularly those engaging with exploration activity in the basin. Compared to 2010, the number of private a no-further-investment scenario, it

equity-backed companies has trebled, with several international investors entering the basin for the first time. Alongside this, and despite rationalisation of portfolios, major mulitnationals have also maintained a strong footprint on the UKCS. These key changes to the landscape signal the attractiveness of the UKCS from an investor perspective. OGUK views this positively as it brings fresh perspectives, new ways of working and new investment. It represents a healthy evolution of business models as the basin continues to mature.

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