EoW November 2012

Transatlantic cable

More connected by trade to the developed than to the emerging economies, the BRICs are feeling the same slowdown e ects as the company they now keep. Brazil is forecast to grow only 3 per cent this year. China is well o its double-digit rates of the past decade. Russia is expecting 3.2 per cent growth in 2012. Even India, with a GDP target of 6.9 per cent growth for 2012, shows a sharp decline from the 9.6 per cent pace of 2010. As noted by Deborah Stokes of Business Without Borders, the CIVETS, meanwhile, are at the lift-o point. All six countries in the group are trending upwards; and four of them (Egypt and South Africa being the exceptions) are posting growth rates higher than 5 per cent. Wrote Ms Stokes, “Lacking the size and heft of the BRICs, these upstarts nevertheless o er a more dynamic population base (average age 27), soaring domestic consumption, and more diverse opportunities for businesses seeking international expansion.” Commodity-driven growth slowing, the Brazilian economy relies increasingly on a newly prosperous but debt-laden middle class Brazil, which for most of its modern history has been a nation of the starkest economic divide between rich and poor, now has a burgeoning middle class that is driving a boom in business. According to the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), a private think tank established in 1944, an estimated 40 million Brazilians joined the ranks of the country’s middle class between 2003 and 2011. The rise has provided them with enormous purchasing power, and the national economy has grown to meet the new demand. FGV de nes Brazilian middle-class (or Class C) households as those with annual incomes of $7,200 to $31,080. In 1993, just over 45 million people were considered Class C. In 2011, their ranks had grown to more than 105 million and they accounted for 46 per cent of the buying power in the country. According to the Brazilian Support Service for Micro and Small Businesses, a private industry group, in 2000 some 4.2 million small businesses had fewer than 100 employees. A decade later, 6.1 million small businesses had such workforces and the number of larger businesses had doubled to 60,000. The extraordinary growth of the middle class may be attributed at least in part to an array of cash-transfer social programmes that pay Brazilians a stipend for meeting social goals, such as keeping their children in school. With the slowing of Brazil’s commodity-driven growth over the past year, the government will be looking to domestic (particularly Class C) consumers to spur on the economy. As reported by the Associated Press on 9 th August, the Central Bank has already slashed a benchmark interest rate to a record low, hoping it will spark consumer spending by generally making credit more available. † The question arises whether, or how soon, Brazil may confront a lesson from many another suddenly prosperous middle class: that easy credit is a two-edged sword. By some measures, the well-heeled “new Brazilians” are already too indebted to support a major share of future growth. Economists estimate that 20 per cent of household monthly income in Brazil goes toward debt service. Again according to the AP, the Serasa Experian credit rating agency disclosed that, in the rst half of 2012, consumer defaults in Brazil were 19.1 per cent higher than in the same period of 2011. Spotlight on: Brazil

Automotive

Crash test results suggest that a midsize luxury car may come with a safety trade-o The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (Arlington, Virginia) is an independent, non-pro t educational organisation funded by US insurers. Of the 11 cars subjected to a new frontal crash test developed by the IIHS, most midsize luxury cars received low or mediocre performance scores. All cars tested were from the 2012 model year. Only the Acura TL, Volvo S60 and In niti G earned good or acceptable ratings. Four cars – the Acura TSX, BMW 3 Series, Lincoln MKZ and Volkswagen CC – earned marginal ratings. Four others – the Mercedes C-Class, Lexus IS 250, Audi A4 and Lexus ES 350 – earned poor ratings. The new test was designed to replicate what happens when a car strikes another car or a xed object such as a tree or utility pole. The test strikes 25 per cent of a car’s front end into a ve-foot rigid barrier at 40 miles per hour. Marginal or poor ratings indicate the cars would not protect occupants very well in a real-world crash. IIHS crash test results are closely watched by the auto industry and often lead to changes in design or safety features. Good scores are also frequently emphasised in car advertising.

Dorothy Fabian – USA Editor

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November 2012

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