Oil & Gas UK Economic Report 2014

If Oil & Gas UK’s central production forecast (shown in Figure 11) is to be realised, the development of new fields will continue to be crucial. Large projects such as Clair Ridge, Schiehallion (a re-development) and Mariner are all expected to come on-stream by 2017, and these three fields alone will be producing over 250,000 boepd (or some 17.5 per cent of 2014’s production) by the end of this decade. Although the expected impact of new fields on production in thenext fewyears isencouraging, the performance of existing fields will have to improve markedly for the strategy of MER UK to be realised in the longer term. There are a number of factors that will influence production beyond the end of this decade and industry and government need

to work together to create the right fiscal and regulatory framework to ensure that: • Typical field recovery rates are improved by harnessing EOR techniques • The UK offers an environment that encourages brownfield investments to recover more reserves and postpone decommissioning • The UKCS remains an attractive destination for international investment in exploration for and the development of new opportunities • Advances in technology are appropriately supported to help extract the more difficult resources remaining on the UKCS

1

2

3

4

5

Figure 11: UK Continental Shelf Production – Actual and Forecast

6

4.0

3.5

7

Actual Production

3.0

8

2.5

Upper

2.0

Forecast Range

Central

1.5

Lower

1.0

Total Production (Million boepd)

0.5

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: DECC, Oil & Gas UK

33

ECONOMIC REPORT 2014