Oil & Gas UK Economic Report 2015

7. Performance Indicators

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This section reviews the UKCS’ commercial health. Using data gathered in June 2015, it provides an updated review of recent performance and assesses potential trends for the basin over the next two to three years, building on the findings of the Oil & Gas UK Activity Survey 14 published in February 2015. DECChas historically published annual details of reserves and resources. This will now be the responsibility of the new regulator, the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA). Oil & Gas UK has compared the latest figures against information available from its own surveys of operator companies and the following provides a summary of the UKCS’ resource potential based on current trends. Over 43 billion barrels of oil and gas have been produced on the UKCS over the last five decades. Future resource recovery will depend on prospectivity, technology improvements, commodity prices, operational costs and efficiencies, and the integrity and longevity of infrastructure, combined with energy, fiscal and regulatory policies. 7.1 Reserves/Resource Potential

Oil and gas reserves and resources are reported under a range of classifications with low, mid and high cases 15 . Figure 28 summarises the figures from DECC as at 31 December 2014. Proven, probable and possible reserves of 11.9 billion boe are reported. It should be noted that this is a somewhat higher figure than the ten billion boe of sanctioned, probable and possible reserves reported by Oil & Gas UK in its 2015 Activity Survey , which focuses only on potential reserve development within operators’ existing business plans. DECC estimates that the UKCS offers potential additional resources (PARs) ranging between 1.5-7.3 billion boe. The PARs represent discoveries without plans for development that are not currently technically or commercially viable. A wide range of uncertainty is reflected in these estimates and, from year to year, projects are seen to move between the PARs and the reserves categories.

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Figure 28: Reserves and Resources as Reported at 31 December 2014

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Proven and Probable (2P)

Proven, Probable and Possible (3P)

Category (Billion boe)

Proven

Reserves

4.2

8.1

11.9

Low

Mid

High

9

Potential Additional Resources (PARs)

1.5

3.7

7.3

Low

Mid

High

10

Yet-To-Find (YTF) (based on central case)

2

6

9

Source: DECC

14 Oil & Gas UK’s Activity Survey 2015 is available to download at www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/activitysurvey 15 See www.gov.uk/oil-and-gas-uk-field-data#uk-oil-and-gas-reserves-and-resources

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ECONOMIC REPORT 2015