Oil & Gas UK Economic Report 2015

Production Forecast At the start of the year it was anticipated that up to 15 new fields would start-up by the end of 2015, however, one thirdof thesehave slipped into2016. This eventuality had already been reflected in the risked forecast for the year and so Oil & Gas UK has maintained its production forecast as published in February’s Activity Survey . The central forecast shows a marginal increase in production in 2015 with it continuing to rise over the remainder of the decade. Production is expected to increase by around four per cent in 2016, another

three per cent in 2017, with a further rise of up to six per cent in 2018, by which time it is forecast that annual production should reach 1.7million boe per day (boepd). Some assumptions are built into this forecast, namely improvements to management of existing assets as well as the timeliness of new start-ups. New field start-ups play a critical role in the forecast and it is expected that such developments will contribute over half a million boepd in 2018, with the biggest contributions coming from Schiehallion Quad204, Clair Ridge, Mariner, Laggan Tormore, Catcher and Kraken.

1

2

3

Figure 47: Production Forecast

4

3.0

2.5

5

2.0

Upper

6

Central

1.5

Lower

7

1.0

Production (Million boepd)

0.5

8

0.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Oil & Gas UK

9

10

61

ECONOMIC REPORT 2015