IGEM Report 1: 2017-18 - THE CYCLONE DEBBIE REVIEW

Inspector-General Emergency Management

At 6.00pm on Sunday 26 March the Townsville group met to consider the latest Bureau forecasts and the results of planning. Forecasts kept arriving. During the meeting an updated cyclone advice, showed a track that reversed the day’s trends and ran closer to Townsville, illustrating the difficulty of decisions in such circumstances.

Armed with the results of the SEAtide TM probabalistic model the planners had calculated the chance of a storm tide reaching the top of Townsville’s red evacuation zone was 13 per cent (see also section on Planning).

Date

North Queensland – BURDEKIN

22 March • Tropical low identified

• LDMG convened in Townsville • Burdekin local group starts meeting • Whitsunday LDMG leaned forward • Townsville LDMG leaned forward • Townsville Local Disaster Coordinator appointed • Townsville LDCC on standby

24 March

• Townsville LDMG stood up • Townsville Local Disaster Coordinator stood up • Townsville LDCC stood up

4.51am • BoM predicts crossing coast south of Townsville as category 4 on 28 March 10.00am • Low named as TC Debbie 6.00pm • Shute Habour pilotage area closed 12 midnight • Townsville LDMG evacuation sub-group activated Before 7.00am • Whitsunday LDMG moved to stand up 11:25am • Whitsunday red and orange zones advised to evacuate 5.22pm • BoM issued storm tide warnings 5.24pm • Burdekin chair directed voluntary evacuation to commence the following day 7.49pm • BoM issues cyclone track map for Townsville Late evening • Burdekin directs specific evacuations via EA of areas Morning • Bowen and Proserpine cyclone shelters opened 6.00am • Directed evacuation of Cape Cleveland, Cungulla and Cleveland Palms started 6.00am • Remaining Townsville red zone directed to evacuate 6.00am • Heatley evacuation centre activated 8.00am • Burdekin multipurpose facility opened as place of refuge 9.00am • Buses provided for the voluntary evacuation of Home Hill and Ayr to Cairns 10.11am • Whitsunday yellow zone evacuated Whitsunday islands and Airlie beach tourists commenced evacuation 11.00am • Townsville deemed outside the cone of uncertainty 11.47am • Mackay LDMG issued act and evacuate now EAs for Midge Point, St Helens Beach areas 1.37pm • Mackay storm tide advice worsened 2.00pm • Four places of refuge opened in Townsville 2.40pm • Mackay issued further EAs to prepare and act 6.00pm • Mackay LDMG advise to evacuate now Mackay area Between 5.00pm–12 midnight • TC intensified to category 4 off Whitsundays

25 March

26 March

Storm Tide 2.2m AHD at 0:59AM Tuesday (4.1m LAT) Storm Surge 0.1m Wave Setup 0.2m

Tuesday High Tide 1.8m AHD at 08:55AM (3.7m LAT) Tuesday Low Tide -1.2m AHD at 02:41AM (0.7m LAT) HAT 2.3m AHD (4.1m LAT) Worst Case 6.0m AHD (7.9m LAT) Townsville Harbour 2.0m AHD (3.9m LAT) The Strand 2.2m AHD (4.1m LAT) AHD 1.9m LAT

27 March

DSITIA Tide Gauge

Storm Tide Warning for Townsville issued at 5.22pm on 26 March by the Bureau. NB: The Storm Tide Warning graphic is accessible via a registered user webpage, available to agencies involved in disaster management.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

48

The Cyclone Debbie Review

Lessons for delivering value and confidence through trust and empowerment