IGEM Report 1: 2017-18 - THE CYCLONE DEBBIE REVIEW

The Cyclone Debbie Review

Themes

The key point is that probabilistic modelling of risks allows planning and decisions to be made and documented ahead of any potential event. Decisions can be recorded with the logic explained, rather than arrived at in the heat of the moment.

Regardless of the level willing to be accepted – whether one per cent or 50 per cent probability – this risk appetite can be debated, decided and then publicised well ahead of any event. Triggers and decision points can be established, so a particular community can know, for example, that if the forecast is a 20 per cent chance of storm tide inundation exceeding one metre that they will be called upon to evacuate.

Finding Queensland is well positioned, in places, to understand the risks of cyclone and flood. The implementation of the Queensland Emergency Risk Framework by Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, and the work by the Queensland Reconstruction Authority to improve understanding of floods through the flood gauge network and programs

addressing flood studies is contributing to an enhanced understanding of risk.

Finding Models, which show decision-makers the probability of events occurring, enable better decision-making and improved community outcomes. In cyclones, models which provide this interpretation of chance, provide decision-makers with this level of sophistication.

For any other event, the Queensland Emergency Risk Framework has great potential to also help drive such improvements.

Finding Worst case planning is valuable and at times needed, and in this instance was used appropriately in places. Decisions based on a “worst case” should be considered very carefully before being applied. A finer-grained approach to risk-based planning and one where information is shared between

decision-makers at different levels would benefit all.

Coastal inundation at Seaforth Beach, Mackay.

Photo courtesy of ABC News – supplied: Lisa Hunter

Recommendation Planning and warnings for storm tide should be based on modelling that shows the chances of an event occurring (probabilistic).

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6 THEMES

Revealing risks to the community: QR codes and Augmented Reality