Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

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Environment and Security

supplies) Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kaza- khstan in order to strengthen the capacity of local forces to protect oil–related infrastruc- ture (Klare, 2004). The new US doctrine fore- sees the establishment of US military facili- ties in the Caspian region (so-called Forward Operating Locations) (Klare, 2006) – possibly in Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan. Deploying military forces in such a region modifies the balance of power between ac- tors. The August 2008 military actions in Georgia, which is strategically positioned on the oil routes from the Caspian Sea to the Black and Mediterranean seas, coupled with alleged terrorist attacks on the BTC pipeline in north-east Turkey over the same period, underline the high vulnerability of the energy infrastructure to conflicts and instability 22 . The military presence has increased in the Caspian region over the last ten years, with coastal states increasing military spend- ing and modernizing military infrastructure (Katlik, 2004) 23 . At present there are large

disparities in military strength between the five Caspian states. The Caspian being a maritime region, the naval component is particularly important. Russia and Iran are the leading naval forces in the region, while Kazakhstan 24 and Turkmenistan are invest- ing in increasing their military forces in the region and upgrading capacity. The 2001 Iran-Azerbaijan confrontation 25 is an illustration of the security risks related to the unresolved legal status of the Cas- pian Sea. However, since then there have been no other inter-state military confronta- tions although states have been strength- ening their naval forces and border troops in the region. Certainly all the actors are well aware of the negative political and economic impact of military conflict in the region where even a limited confrontation between two or more coastal states would be enough to slow or halt offshore explora- tion and put investors to flight. Further sig- nificant investment in the energy sector will only occur if there is political stability and security in the region.