Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

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Environment and Security

Fluctuating sea level and natural hazards Environmental degradation and security

Caspian coastal regions, where most towns, farmland, industrial activities and oilfields are situated are exposed to considerable fluctuations in sea level. Rising sea levels and storm surges flood vast areas contain- ing oil wells and infrastructure, increase pol- lution and damage scarce farmland. The level of the Caspian Sea has fallen and risen, often rapidly, many times in the past. The main factor affecting the sea level is be- lieved to be changing climatic conditions, es- pecially in the Volga river basin, the source of 80% of the water in the sea. Water diversion and dams play a lesser role. Despite years

of research, knowledge of the factors re- sponsible for fluctuating levels is still limited and insufficient to make reliable, long-term predictions. Researchers from Russia, Ka- zakhstan and Germany have suggested that the trend towards higher rainfall observed since the 1970s in the northern parts of the Caspian basin will in the long run increase water flow in the Volga and Ural rivers 65 . The likelihood of rising sea levels consequently seems realistic 66 . Although such forecasts should be regarded with some caution, a wise strategy for adaptation would be to pre- pare for the worst-case scenario of a 1–3 m rise in sea level. Under such a scenario, many coastal settlements could be flooded, and agricultural land would be lost, not to mention possible flooding of roads, oil wells and sites used for waste storage and other environmental hazards. All of this could be further aggravated by storm surges capable of raising water levels by an additional 2–3 m in the most extreme cases. Littoral states are aware of this danger and are taking meas- ures to reduce the negative consequences of such events. For example, planning and implementation of coastal protection meas- ures is already under way in the most of vul- nerable areas of Kazakhstan. The most recent 2.5 m rise in the Cas- pian Sea from 1978 till 1996, when the sea reached the highest level of –26.5 m, con- siderably affected Atyrau province in Kaza- khstan as well as Turkmenistan’s shoreline. In the past ten years, however, the level of the sea has been largely stable, even drop- ping 1 m then rising again, following a trend typical of seasonal fluctuation.

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