Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

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Environment and Security

Finally, global warming is directly affect- ing the Caspian Sea environment. Satellite data and meteorological records suggest that the extent and duration of winter sea- ice, which covers approximately 70–75% 68 of the northern Caspian Sea, is declining, which is consistent with regional and global warming patterns (Kouraev, 2008). Because of milder winters with higher than normal temperatures, the extent of ice has been much smaller than usual during the last 10 years. Such a reduction of the ice affects the breeding habits and living conditions of the endangered Caspian seals and the en- tire ecological system (UNEP/GRID-Aren- dal 2006; CEP 2007; Ivkina and Stroeva 2007). Under these conditions seals must live closely packed on the little remaining ice, which in turn facilitates the spread of disease, including canine distemper virus (Kuiken 2006). It is worth considering the impact of natural disasters as factors of increased vulnerabil- ity and loss of livelihoods. Among natural hazards present in the area, not only storm surges deserve mention but also the seis- mic activity and the related possibility of tsunami generation. One of the most devastating recent earth- quakes in the Caspian region was the Ash- gabat M 7.2 earthquake in 1948 along the Kopet Dag mountains fault zone. Despite being relatively shallow and localized, the quake caused massive loss of life and property in the capital of Turkmenistan. According to estimates 90% of Ashgabat’s buildings collapsed or were too badly dam-

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In Turkmenistan the impacts of the ris- ing sea level are particularly apparent in the Cheleken peninsula, where seawater has submerged roads, a fragment of the town of Khazar and some industrial infra- structure. Other towns (Garakol, Ekerem, Chekichler), oilfields (Goturdepe, Chele- ken) and pipelines are under threat. In the worst-case scenario (+5 m), the Cheleken peninsula could be completely separated from the mainland. Adequate adaptation measures and coastal zone management may help to prevent many of the negative impacts of fluctuating sea level.