Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

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Eastern Caspian

Environment and Security

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aged to be restored and from 27 000 as reported to the Soviet government in Mos- cow in 1948, to 100 000 people lost their lives as now officially recognized by Turk- menistan, out of a total of 130 000 Ashga- bat residents at the time (Nikonov, 1998). In the Cheleken area powerful earthquakes are significantly deeper, yet their magni- tude could be high, with a corresponding destructive potential. Parts of the South Caspian region are seismically active and may become the area of tsunami genera- tion, if submarine earthquakes exceed magnitude 7. Historical data contains evi- dence of small waves of 1 m (Dostenko et al 2002). In the shallow northern Caspian Sea, the risk of earthquakes and tsunamis is low; but the risk of extensive flooding due to storm surges is high. Storm surges have the potential to severely damage oilfields as well as populated areas and infrastruc- ture, especially in Atyrau province. Moreo- ver 0.8 million ha of agricultural land are subject to the risk of storm surges. In 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1996 and 2005 such wind-induced surges of seawater pene- trated 15-30 km inland and affected settle- ments, oilfields (Prorva and Terenozek) and agricultural land. Regional or global epidemics could also af- fect living conditions and livelihoods. The risk of a possible outbreak of avian influ- enza spread by migrating birds, millions of which visit each year the eastern Caspian Sea’s lagoons and bays, should not be un- derestimated 69 .

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