Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

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Environment and Security

Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions

This report sets out to identify the issues that affect the environment of the Caspian Sea, focussing specifically on the eastern Caspian Sea shores of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Reaching beyond an exclu- sively environmental perspective, the report analyses the changes that are profoundly modifying the livelihoods of people living in the eastern Caspian region and could lead to social tension or even regional instabil- ity. The analysis identifies several areas that correspond to this concern. The boom in the energy sector in the last ten years has left a lasting mark on the region, changing its socio-economic conditions. In many cases these changes are a stress factor for both the environment and local communities. Furthermore, various military and industrial activities have in the past contributed to en- vironmental degradation, or still do, which in turn has a negative impact on human se- curity. Climate change and natural disasters are also a risk factor for the eastern Caspian region. As none of these elements can be isolated from the others, the report looks at how these risk factors interact. The eastern Caspian region is well endowed with oil and gas resources and since the 1990s the region’s energy sector has enjoyed massive growth leading to core changes in the socio-economic conditions of the whole area. Both the geographical position at the crossroads between East and West, be- tween Russia, Central Asia, the Caucasus and Iran, and the presence of hydrocarbon reserves have focussed global interest on the Caspian over the last 20 years. Growing demand for energy, particularly fromWestern (EU, USA) and Easternmarkets (China, India), combined with rising energy prices and efforts by top energy importers to

diversify sources have encouraged competi- tion fuelled by commercial and political fac- tors, making this part of the world the nub of the “New Great Game”. Over the years a large number of actors and stakeholders have been involved in the complexities of planning and constructing pipeline systems in a region that has undergone significant political change since independence. The break-up of the Soviet Union introduced four new actors to the region: Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Turk- menistan, which with Iran now border the Caspian Sea. Since then the legal status of borders on the Caspian Sea and its shelf re- sources has been under negotiation. At the same time the military presence in the re- gion has increased, a trend that also needs further monitoring. Protecting oil and gas infrastructure is a security concern for both littoral states and major energy consumers. Clarifying the legal status of the Caspian Sea is one of the key issues in regulating access to its natural resources. Clear and agreed upon regulations increase the predictability of the situation while decreasing the politi- cal risks related to possible confrontation over access to these resources. This in turn increases the interest for global, regional and national actors to invest in the Caspian region. The fact that the legal status of the Caspian Sea is still an open question under- lines this reality and the pressure of political and economical interests towards finding a common solution. At the same time, states have been able to find cooperative solu- tions not only on a bilateral or trilateral basis but also in a multilateral framework (ie the Tehran Convention). Past experience has shown that the Caspian States have been able to develop a positive dialogue, espe- cially on environmental issues.