Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation

Eastern Caspian

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Environment and Security

Human activities have taken a heavy toll on the biodiversity of the region. One indicator of the growing impact on the marine environ- ment is the dramatic drop in the number of Caspian seals from over 1 million a century ago, to 350–400 000 in the 1970s and less than 110 000 at present. Thousands of seals have perished in mass die-offs. These events attract considerable attention at a local and international level. Initially excessive poach- ing caused the reduction in the seal popula- tion, but today the prime causes of extinction are thought to be environmental pollution, shortage of food, changes in the ecosystem, climate warming and epidemics. The level of the Caspian Sea has fallen and risen, often rapidly, many times in the past. The main factor affecting the fluctuating sea level is thought to be changing climatic con- ditions, particularly in the Volga river basin, the source of 80% of the water in the sea. Rising sea levels and natural hazards such as storm surges affect vast areas, flooding oil wells and infrastructure, which increases pol- lution and damages already scarce farmland. Earthquakes are also a potential hazard for the region and its energy infrastructure, with devastating consequences for the popula- tion and the environment. Finally, other fac- tors such as climate change will affect the re- gion, for example by reducing sea-ice in the winter, impacting on the breeding habits and living conditions of Caspian seals and, more broadly, the ecological system as a whole. The eastern Caspian region has experienced rapid change since independence in the ear- ly 1990s. The booming energy sector holds many opportunities but also considerable challenges and risks. The region’s increasing specialization in the extraction of fossil fuels, combined with the degradation of marine bi-

ological resources, freshwater reserves and agricultural land are the main sources of con- cern from an environment and security per- spective. Greater dependence on the energy sector also makes the region more vulner- able to any major changes in that quarter. The Caspian Sea region must also strike a balance between the economic gains from rapid development of energy resources, and the risk of over-exploitation and envi- ronmental degradation, particularly in shore and sea zones. Depletion of vital ecosystem products would impact negatively on hu- man development. Urban areas must deal with very fast growth and increasing de- pendency on the energy sector to fund such development. At the same time rural areas are facing deepening poverty and a deterio- rating environment. These changes under- mine the region’s resilience and heighten its vulnerability to powerful social tensions. Overuse of resources will have long-term consequences that will affect the region long after oil and gas resources have been used up. There is a concern that once its energy resources have gone, the region will have to cope with the legacy of several decades of oil and gas extraction (a polluted environment, depleted biodiversity, etc.), but without the financial resources to repair the damage. The signature of the Tehran Convention by all the Caspian states was a major step to- wards enhanced protection of the Caspian basin. However the littoral states still need to develop a unified approach to sustainable management of the economic and natural resources of the Caspian region, opening the way for less dependence on the energy sector and better protection of its popula- tion’s livelihoods.