Deputy Seminar, Denver, CO

Expansion Getting Tired? (Source: National Bureau Economic Research Trough Peak Months October 1945 (IV) November 1948(IV) 37 October 1949 (IV) July 1953(II) 45 May 1954 (II) August 1957(III) 39 April 1958 (II) April 1960(II) 24 February 1961 (I) December 1969(IV) 106 November 1970 (IV) November 1973(IV) 36 March 1975 (I) January 1980(I) 58 July 1980 (III) July 1981(III) 12 November 1982 (IV) July 1990(III) 92 March 1991(I) March 2001(I) 120 November 2001 (IV) December 2007 (IV) 73 June 2009 (II) ??? 108 Average Expansion, Post WWII 58.4

CSBS - 2018 DEPUTY SEMINAR Denver, CO– July 16, 2018

GDP = Consumption Gross Investment Contributions To GDP Growth (Source: Bureau ofEconomicAnalysis)

Net Exports Government

2016: Q3 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2017: Q3 2017: Q4 2018: Q1 2016: Q3 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2017: Q3 2017: Q4 2018: Q1

2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 3.1%

1.92% 1.99%

0.40% 0.36% 0.09%

1.34%

-1.61%

0.03%

1.32% -0.20% 0.22% -0.11%

2.28%

0.64% 0.21% -0.03%

3.2% 1.49% 1.19%

0.36% -1.16%

0.12% 0.51%

2.9% 2.0%

2.75% 0.60%

0.78%

1.22% -0.04% 0.22%

Gross Investment = Nonresidential

Residential

Inventory

0.40% 0.42%

-0.18%

0.16% 1.06% -1.46% 0.12%

1.34% 0.02% 0.26%

-0.20% 0.64% 1.19% 0.78% 1.22%

0.86% 0.82% 0.58% 0.84% 1.28%

0.41% -0.30%

-0.21% 0.79%

0.46%

-0.53%

-0.04% -0.01%

CSBS - 2018 DEPUTY SEMINAR Denver, CO– July 16, 2018