Deputy Seminar, Denver, CO

Comments from Curtin (source: Richard Curtin, Director of Survey of Consumers, February 2017)

“the gain represents the result of an unprecedented partisan divergence, with Democrats expecting recession and Republicans expecting robust growth” “ overall gain in the Expectations Index was due to self-identified Independents, who were much closer to the optimism of the Republicans than the pessimism of the Democrats” “the February Expectations Index was 55.5 among Democrats, 120.1 among Republicans, and 89.2 among Independents”

CSBS - 2018 DEPUTY SEMINAR Denver, CO– July 16, 2018

Retail Sales (source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, annual rate of growth)

-12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12%

RS Total RS ex-auto

Jul-01

Jul-12

Oct-98

Oct-09

Apr-04

Apr-15

Jan-96

Jun-02

Jan-07

Jun-13

Mar-05

Mar-16

Feb-06

Feb-17

Dec-96

Nov-97

Sep-99

Aug-00

Dec-07

Nov-08

Sep-10

Aug-11

May-03

May-14

CSBS - 2018 DEPUTY SEMINAR Denver, CO– July 16, 2018