Activity Survey 2015

ACTIVITY SURVEY 2015

Discoveries from Exploration and Appraisal Activity Survey results from operators suggest that only 55 million boe of technically recoverable reserves were discovered in 2014, with seven of the 14 exploration wells drilled encountering hydrocarbons. Although a 50 per cent technical success rate 6 is in line with the average of the last five years, three of these wells discovered just five million boe in total, materially smaller accumulations than were originally targeted. The other four wells found 50 million boe in total. These could be considered commercially viable opportunities and ultimately lead to development under the right circumstances, giving a commercial success rate 7 of just under 30 per cent, slightly below the average of the last five years. It should be noted, though, that these numbers are subject to further revision as opportunities are appraised. However, by any measure, 2014 is unlikely to be a remarkable year for hydrocarbon discoveries. It appears that less than 150 million boe in total have been discovered over the last three years, the lowest in the history of the UKCS.

Figure 17: Recoverable Reserves and Associated Success Rates

Total Recoverable Reserves Technical Success Rate Commercial Success Rate

250

80%

70%

200

60%

50%

150

40%

100

Success Rate

30%

20%

50

Recoverable Reserves (Million boe)

10%

0

0%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Oil & Gas UK, Wood Mackenzie

6 Technical success – encountering hydrocarbons that may or may not attract commercial development. 7 Commercial success – encountering hydrocarbons that stand a reasonable chance of development.

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