Activity Survey 2015

Figure 25: Production Forecast for the UK Continental Shelf

1

3.0

2.5

2

2.0

Upper

3

Central Lower

1.5

1.0

Production (Million boepd)

4

0.5

0.0

5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Oil & Gas UK

As we look further into the future, the UKCS’ production performance becomes even more uncertain. There are still a number of significant ongoing developments yet to produce first oil or gas that will offer a significant boost to production towards the end of the decade. As a result, even our most cautious production estimate still shows an upturn by 2017. The top ten producing fields currently account for just under one third of total production. In just four years’ time, the top ten fields are expected to make up around 44 per cent of production as the likes of Clair Ridge, Schiehallion, Mariner, the Greater Catcher Area and Laggan Tormore, none of which are currently onstream, become major contributors.

6

7

8

Figure 26: Forecast Proportion of Production from Top Ten Producing Fields

100%

90%

80%

70%

Production from all other fields

60%

50%

44%

40%

31%

30%

Proportion of Production

20%

Production from top ten producing fields

10%

0%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Oil & Gas UK

page 37