Oil & Gas UK Activity Survey 2016

ACTIVITY SURVEY 2016

Figure 29 shows the breakdown of Oil & Gas UK’s central production forecast to 2020. However, it should be noted that the unsanctioned new and brownfield production opportunities illustrated could well be at risk in the current business environment.

Figure 29: Breakdown of the Central Production Forecast

3

Potential Unsanctioned New Production

Production From Potential New Brownfield Investment

2.5

Production From New Sanctioned Field Start ups (2016 onwards)

No Further Investment Base (Sanctioned) Production

2

1.5

1

Production (Million boepd)

0.5

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Oil & Gas UK

Figure 30 shows how the average production per field has declined from almost 80,000 boepd in 1985 to little over 5,000 boepd in 2015. This is the result of the inevitable long-term decline of some of the biggest and oldest fields on the UKCS that have long since come off plateau. However, the start-up of a small number of very large fields between now and the end of the decade will offset this impact over the next few years. There are currently just three fields on the UKCS producing in excess of 50,000 boepd but this number is likely to double by 2018. The reliance on volumes from sanctioned new fields in the near term reaffirms the importance of ensuring timely capital project delivery of new UKCS developments over the next few years. While Oil & Gas UK’s central production forecast does account for the prospect of some delay, if the recent record of poor project delivery continues, it will have an increasingly significant negative impact on the UKCS’ near-term production profile.

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