TPi January 2016

Spotlight on the future of the world’s nuclear power industry

An expert commentary from Charles Ferreira, business development manager, and Kris Narasimhan, nuclear products manager, Fine Tubes and Superior Tube

Notably, all of this market activity has happened despite a number of countervailing factors. The Fukushima incident in 2011 had a significant effect on the world’s nuclear power industry, points out Mr Ferreira. Operators and engineering companies have introduced new standards, and governments have established requirements to put additional safety equipment in place, which increases costs. We do not agree with international nuclear safety consultant Mycle Schneider, who commented that nuclear power is not economically viable. While the most obvious source for increased activity undoubtedly is new-builds in developing markets, this is far from the only source of growth for the nuclear power industry in the coming decades. Increased activity for safety upgrades and legacy projects will come from a number of different sources around the world, including the USA, Europe and Russia. There also will be significant nuclear efficiency programmes and clean-up/decommissioning projects and, moving beyond Fukushima, Japan plans for nuclear power to contribute between 20 and 22 per cent of its electric power generation in 2030.

T here is good reason to be confident about the future of the nuclear power industry. Nuclear energy currently accounts for approximately 11 per cent of the world’s electric power generation and that percentage appears poised to increase.

Global energy demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2 per cent between 2012 and 2035, driven in large part by expanding worldwide electrification and increased mass power consumption in emerging markets. emissions and enhancing energy independence at the same time, governments plan to turn increasingly to non-fossil fuel options to generate electricity with the nuclear power industry – set to grow as a result at a CAGR of 2.44 per cent per year. For example, China has plans to build at least 60 new reactors, while India will need some 20 new power stations by 2030 to meet its target of increasing the 5,000MW of electricity it currently produces from nuclear power to 30,000MW by 2032. In addition, Russia, the UK and the USA all have firm plans to either build new nuclear power stations or add new reactors to existing plants. Moreover, apart from new builds, there is considerable refurbishment and maintenance activity planned in many countries with mature nuclear power industries. That is significant because it can be eight or nine years from the date that an operator or government agency decides to construct a new plant until that reactor becomes operational. In other words, the decision-making process as it affects the supply chain can be a very long one, whereas, in the maintenance field, it is possible to react more quickly to more pressing demands. In one such example, Canada will spend an estimated $20bn in the coming years on the refurbishment of existing reactors. Similarly, both US and French operators want to extend the lives of reactors beyond their originally projected 40- or 60-year lifespans. Mr Narasimhan makes the additional point that apart from an ongoing need for consumable products, these refurbishment projects offer huge opportunities to supply everything those projects require, from heat exchangers to steam generators. To meet that demand while reducing CO 2

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January 2016 Tube ProducTs InTernaTIonal