ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Executive Summary

Planning and development of gas infrastructure are vital for meeting the obligations under REG 715/2009. The CEE GRIP contributes to the planning process. It provides information on possible evolution of gas infra- structure in the CEE region in the period of 2014–2023. This is achieved by undertaking a wide range of assess- ments on demand, supply and infrastructure capacity.

The summary sets out key outputs from this CEE GRIP. The findings are provided below in three sections, depending on the subject of analysis:

Infrastructure projects:

\\ In total, there are 88 gas investment projects planned for implementation in the CEE region in the upcoming decade, including 24 projects with the FID already taken and 64 projects which are on an earlier stage of development (non-FID). \\ Implementation of the FID projects will further improve the functioning of the gas network in the region by: upgrading internal pipelines (projects in DE, PL, SK, SI), constructing new cross-border interconnections (SK-HU and RO-BG interconnections), establishing reverse flows on cross-border interconnections (projects in PL and RO), extending UGS facilities (projects in PL) and finally constructing the LNG terminal (project in PL). However, the non-FID projects are essential for full integration of the regional gas infrastructure and providing a physical possibility for a more diversified supply portfolio, including LNG, gas from Norway and the SGC region. \\ Demand: The demand in the CEE region is expected to increase significantly with a rate between 8% and 12% depending on the assumed conditions. The major share of the growth is estimated for the first part of the period, between 2014 and 2018, for the period between 2018 and 2023, the expected increase is rather moderate. \\ Supply situation: In the average day scenarios, the situation is sufficient in gen- eral, only Poland is expected to have reduced the remaining flexibility in 2018 and 2023 FID. In the non-FID case, the remaining flexibility is sufficient in the entire region. \\ Although the design case is the most demanding, only a slight shortage in Poland is expected for the 2018 FID case. Slightly reduced flexibility is expect- ed in some FID cases for Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. An imple- mentation of the non-FID projects will almost completely mitigate the issue. \\ The results of average winter day scenarios suggest that Poland might be affected in 2023, however this can be solved with implementation of non-FID projects. \\ For the average summer day, no shortages, but reduced remaining flexibility is predicted for Poland in 2018 and 2023 FID. \\ Network Resilience: In the mixed scenarios, the situation under the reference scenario is – besides a 2023 FID shortage in Hungary in the CEE 2W UR/ EU AW case – similar to the design case, in the disruption scenario several countries in the region are expected to face partially dramatic shortages: where- as Bulgaria (in 2014 only), Romania and – partially – Hungary are impacted vastly in case on an interruption of supplies via Ukraine in both, the FID as well

Network Analysis:

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023