ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

as the non-FID case, Poland is the only country expecting shortages in case of a Belarus route disruption for 2014 and 2018 FID and non-FID. Hungary is likely to have reduced remaining flexibility in the FID case. The network resil- ience is expected to be improved under non-FID cases at the end of the 10-year period analysed in the CEE GRIP. \\ Market Integration: Russia has been and will remain the main supplier of the region with a minimum share of 50% in all reference scenarios. The sources Algeria, Libya, LNG or the SGC region, do not play a major role, however the share of LNG and gas from the SGC region is increasing. It is worth noting that especially the average day scenario with minimum Russian deliveries show, that the market integration is at a sound level in the region (more diversified supply portfolio with the share of gas from Russia at the level of approx. 30%), and that the development goes into the right direction, compared to the situa- tion as described in the last edition of the CEE GRIP. \\ The assessment is performed based on two scenarios which foresee the disrup- tion of supply via Ukraine and Belarus in the winter and summer periods. The results show that the disruption of the Ukrainian route is likely to have a nega- tive impact on Bulgaria and Romania in the winter period 2014/2015 and on Croatia in the winter period 2018/2019. However, the realisation of projects at a later stage contributes to positive results in these three countries. The other countries in the CEE region are not affected by interruptions in this scenario (their results are equal to or above 1). \\ Due to geographical reasons the analysis of the disruption via Belarus is con- centrated on Poland. The calculations for the winter period prove that Poland meets the regional N-1 criterion and the results improve over the time, with pro- jects commissioned in subsequent years. \\ All countries in the CEE region achieve good results in case of interruptions in the summer period, as each country is expected to cover gas demand and meet injection requirements of UGS facilities while having at the same time the Ukrainian or Belarusian route fully disrupted for at least 76 days. The only ex- ception is Bulgaria, under the Ukraine disruption in 2014, is not able to inject into UGS facilities. Nevertheless this problem will be solved by commissioning of planned projects in the coming years.

Regional N-1 analysis in the CEE countries:

Image courtesy of Gasunie

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