ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Scenarios have been defined via various demand conditions:

\\ Market integration: average day under: – – Maximum RU share. – – Maximum NO share. – – Maximum DZ share. – – Maximum LY share. – – Maximum LNG share. – – Minimum LNG share. – – Minimum RU share.

\\ Reference scenarios: – – Average day.

– – Average summer day. – – Average winter day. – – Design case.

– – Single uniform risk day in whole CEE. – – Two-week uniform risk in whole CEE.

\\ Security of Supply: – – CEE single uniform risk day under disruption via UA. – – CEE single uniform risk day under disruption via BY. – – CEE single uniform risk day under simultaneous disruption via BY and UA. – – CEE two-week uniform risk under disruption via UA. – – CEE two-week uniform risk under disruption via BY. – – CEE two-week uniform risk under simultaneous disruption via BY and UA. Under uniform risk scenarios, no limitation to UGS deliverability has been considered. The LNG terminal deliverability stays at 80% keeping the ability to send-out gas under peak demand conditions. Under average daily demand/supply, the ENTSOG model does not consider any withdrawal or injection, as such simulations stand for the simula- tions of the whole year assuming storage neutrality. For the average summer day sce- nario, average injection has been assumed, whereas for the winter counterpart, average withdrawal has been taken into consideration. More details are given in the table below.

Situations

Pipe imports

LNG

UGS

Supply sources

1-day Design-Case or 1-day Uniform Risk

The maximum reached on one day during the last 3 years

Import component is equal to the Average Winter Supply. The remaining send-out is used as last resort Import component is equal to the Average Winter Supply. Additional send-out based on the maximum use of stored LNG

Last resort supply

14-day Uniform Risk

The highest average of 14 consecutive days during the last 3 years

Last resort supply

1-day Average

Average shares by source of the different supply import sources in the European yearly balance of last 3 years, applied to the required imports. When the supply coming from one source is limited by the intermediate potential supply scenario, the corresponding missing volume is divided between the remaining sources proportionally to their ability to increase their level i.e. how far they are from reaching their own intermediate supply potential scenario. Based on the 1-day average – decreased by source to represent the seasonal swing. The seasonal swing in gas supply has been estimated as the average seasonal swing of the last 3 years for each source. Based on the 1-day average – increased by source to represent the seasonal swing. The seasonal swing in gas supply has been estimated as the average seasonal swing of the last 3 years for each source. Minimum: Supply by source and route as resulting of the 1-day Average Maximum: As the 1-day Design Case Minimum: Supply by source and route as resulting of the 1-day Average Maximum: As the 14-day Uniform risk

Not used

1-day Average Summer

The total injected volume for Europe has been de- fined as 80% of the WGV (based on the average use of the last 3 years), and divided by balancing zone proportionally to the injection capacity.

1-day Average Winter

Average withdrawal equals average injection (country by country) of the average summer.

1-day – Mixed cases

Min: value in average winter Max: withdraw availability (linked to stock level) Min: value in average winter Max: withdraw availability (linked to stock level)

2-week – mixed cases

Table 6: Supply situations applied in the CEE GRIP 2014–2023

Under every situation, aggregated national production at European level is set in the 90-100% range of its maximum deliverability.

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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